World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, conflict and global events. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 37d | July 23100% July 22100% +10 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.55M | — | $470.6K | 37d |
| 2 |  World Cup Final: U.S. Viewership PolymarketSports· ends Closed | 46m-50m100% 58m+0.1% | — | +5.3 pts | $955.6K | — | $1.78M | Closed |
| 3 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | JD Vance20% Marco Rubio13% +48 more | — | +0.1 pts | $732.8K | — | $48.48M | 2y |
| 4 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | Gavin Newsom20% Jon Ossoff16% +49 more | — | — | $706.5K | — | $72.79M | 2y |
| 5 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No70% Yes31% | — | — | $604.7K | — | $787.8K | 158d |
| 6 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Mojtaba Khamenei73% No Head of State7.5% +28 more | — | +0.7 pts | $484.2K | — | $1.65M | 158d |
| 7 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 5d | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $412.3K | — | $539.0K | 5d |
| 8 |  Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | August 3194% July 3193% +2 more | — | +38.4 pts | $385.8K | — | $229.6K | Closed |
| 9 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | August 3146% August 1539% +2 more | — | -9.5 pts | $380.6K | — | $173.4K | Closed |
| 10 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62% Flávio Bolsonaro23% +15 more | — | +1.0 pts | $354.5K | — | $9.28M | 70d |
| 11 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | December 3134% September 3023% +2 more | — | — | $283.7K | — | $349.4K | Closed |
| 12 |  Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? PolymarketWorld· ends Closed | August 319.9% July 313.0% | — | +1.3 pts | $275.1K | — | $388.5K | Closed |
| 13 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | J.D. Vance43% Marco Rubio28% +40 more | — | +0.1 pts | $265.1K | — | $55.52M | 2y |
| 14 |  Iran full airspace closure by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 37d | August 3153% August 1544% +3 more | — | -7.5 pts | $262.1K | — | $97.3K | 37d |
| 15 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | June 30, 202739% December 3128% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $221.0K | — | $247.6K | 158d |
| 16 |  US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) PolymarketWorld· ends 37d | August 3152% August 1433% +2 more | — | — | $196.6K | — | $286.7K | 37d |
| 17 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 340d | June 30, 202717% December 31, 20268.5% +3 more | — | — | $166.5K | — | $1.32M | 340d |
| 18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 36d | No90% Yes11% | — | — | $123.9K | — | $370.8K | 36d |
| 19 |  Iran invades Kuwait by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 37d | August 313.3% July 311.3% | — | -4.7 pts | $109.1K | — | $152.4K | 37d |
| 20 |  Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | August 1519% July 317.5% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $105.3K | — | $303.6K | 6d |
| 21 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics· ends 278d | Marine Le Pen31% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | -0.6 pts | $98.6K | — | $11.82M | 278d |
| 22 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No91% Yes9.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $93.7K | — | $813.8K | 158d |
| 23 |  Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 6d | July 3189% July 2484% | — | +37.0 pts | $92.8K | — | $43.4K | 6d |
| 24 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 37d | August 3143% August 1530% +2 more | — | -3.5 pts | $90.2K | — | $192.4K | 37d |
| 25 |  US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 37d | August 3164% August 1543% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $87.4K | — | $237.5K | 37d |
| 26 |  Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | December 31, 202689% September 30, 202673% +2 more | — | -0.1 pts | $72.0K | — | $334.3K | Closed |
| 27 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics· ends 56d | United Russia (ER)56% New People (NL)33% +5 more | — | — | $65.6K | — | $1.49M | 56d |
| 28 |  Will Russia capture Sumy by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 248d | No94% Yes6.0% | — | -2.0 pts | $51.1K | — | $34.0K | 248d |
| 29 |  Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Gadi Eizenkot49% Benjamin Netanyahu38% +16 more | — | -0.3 pts | $49.5K | — | $2.12M | 158d |
| 30 |  NATO x Russia military clash by...? PolymarketWorld· ends 158d | No77% Yes24% | — | +5.0 pts | $48.5K | — | $57.0K | 158d |
| 31 |  US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No91% Yes9.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $38.1K | — | $19.6K | 158d |
| 32 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes3.9% | — | — | $31.0K | — | $587.3K | 158d |
| 33 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | Flávio Bolsonaro74% Renan Santos11% +15 more | — | -1.0 pts | $21.6K | — | $779.1K | 70d |
| 34 | Hurricane Fausto category? KalshiWorld· ends 130d | Category 1 or above99% No1.0% | — | — | $20.5K | $37.9K | — | 130d |
| 35 |  Bank of Japan Decision in July? PolymarketEconomics· ends 5d | No change97% 25 bps increase2.5% +3 more | — | +0.8 pts | $18.2K | — | $72.6K | 5d |
| 36 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.7 pts | $17.8K | — | $27.4K | 158d |
| 37 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 1y | No89% Yes12% | — | -1.0 pts | $13.2K | — | $219.7K | 1y |
| 38 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 66d | No98% Yes1.7% | — | +0.1 pts | $12.0K | — | $105.1K | 66d |
| 39 |  Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | No92% Yes8.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $11.0K | — | $43.3K | Closed |
| 40 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 PolymarketPolitics· ends 76d | Yulia Navalnaya11% UNRWA8.2% +18 more | — | — | $10.0K | — | $2.37M | 76d |
| 41 | Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 7d | Above 1 inch99% No1.0% | — | — | $9.6K | $16.6K | — | 7d |
| 42 |  Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No92% Yes8.5% | — | — | $9.5K | — | $148.7K | 158d |
| 43 |  Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 37d | No93% Yes7.0% | — | +2.5 pts | $8.6K | — | $45.7K | 37d |
| 44 |  Berlin State Election Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 56d | Linke33% CDU27% +6 more | — | -0.5 pts | $8.1K | — | $412.3K | 56d |
| 45 |  Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No91% Yes9.5% | — | — | $7.9K | — | $173.6K | 158d |
| 46 | Russia Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 56d | United Russia (ER)96% New People (NL)1.7% +5 more | — | +0.7 pts | $7.4K | — | $645.8K | 56d |
| 47 |  Netanyahu out by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3144% July 310.4% | — | -1.0 pts | $7.4K | — | $119.4K | 158d |
| 48 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No74% Yes27% | — | +3.0 pts | $6.8K | — | $59.3K | 158d |
| 49 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? PolymarketWorld· ends 158d | No95% Yes4.9% | — | -0.1 pts | $6.0K | — | $210.2K | 158d |
| 50 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No90% Yes11% | — | -1.5 pts | $5.5K | — | $44.1K | 158d |
| 51 |  Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? PolymarketWorld· ends 158d | No89% Yes12% | — | -5.5 pts | $5.1K | — | $34.4K | 158d |
| 52 |  Ukraine election held by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | No92% Yes8.0% | — | — | $4.7K | — | $14.4K | Closed |
| 53 | 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? KalshiWorld· ends 3y | Before 203035% No65% | — | -42.0 pts | $4.6K | $13.2K | — | 3y |
| 54 |  Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Somaliland25% Syria16% +10 more | — | -0.5 pts | $4.3K | — | $144.7K | 158d |
| 55 |  Jimmy Lai released by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes3.9% | — | -1.3 pts | $3.9K | — | $17.2K | 158d |
| 56 | Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics· ends 55d | No change72% 25 bps increase28% +3 more | — | +14.5 pts | $3.8K | — | $28.6K | 55d |
| 57 | Who will be a part of the next government of Israel? KalshiWorld· ends 1y | Likud42% No58% | — | — | $3.1K | $14.6K | — | 1y |
| 58 | Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 7d | Above 2599% No1.0% | — | — | $3.0K | $4.2K | — | 7d |
| 59 | What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Central Pacific this year? KalshiWorld· ends 129d | Pena98% Fausto81% +30 more | — | — | $2.8K | $8.7K | — | 129d |
| 60 |  Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No meeting by December 3170% China17% +13 more | — | -3.0 pts | $2.8K | — | $323.1K | 158d |
| 61 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 56d | AfD86% SPD14% +6 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.7K | — | $224.8K | 56d |
| 62 | Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 7d | Above 1 inch99% No1.0% | — | — | $2.4K | $4.4K | — | 7d |
| 63 |  Next Prime Minister of Sweden PolymarketPolitics· ends 49d | Magdalena Andersson80% Ulf Kristersson17% +8 more | — | +0.5 pts | $2.3K | — | $354.3K | 49d |
| 64 |  NATO article 5 before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No92% Yes8.0% | — | — | $2.3K | — | $22.3K | 158d |
| 65 |  Quebec General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 71d | PQ71% CAQ15% +4 more | — | +1.5 pts | $2.2K | — | $177.8K | 71d |
| 66 |  Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No86% Yes14% | — | -1.0 pts | $2.1K | — | $26.9K | 158d |
| 67 | Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 7d | Above 1 inches99% No1.0% | — | — | $2.0K | $2.4K | — | 7d |
| 68 | Rain in Denver in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 7d | Above 1 inch96% No4.0% | — | +20.0 pts | $1.9K | $3.5K | — | 7d |
| 69 |  Modi out by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No92% Yes7.5% | — | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | — | $17.1K | 158d |
| 70 |  Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No meeting before 202790% Switzerland3.0% +12 more | — | — | $1.8K | — | $289.9K | 158d |
| 71 |  Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.3 pts | $1.8K | — | $31.3K | 158d |
| 72 |  Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No90% Yes9.9% | — | +0.9 pts | $1.7K | — | $46.7K | 158d |
| 73 | What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year? KalshiWorld· ends 129d | Amanda1.0% No99% | — | — | $1.7K | $2.3K | — | 129d |
| 74 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | Lula da Silva 5-10%35% Lula da Silva 10-15%32% +9 more | — | -0.5 pts | $1.7K | — | $153.3K | 70d |
| 75 | Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | PL71% MDB16% +10 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.6K | — | $107.9K | 70d |
| 76 | Highest temperature in Seattle on Jul 25, 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 1d | 70° or below51% 73° to 74°27% +4 more | — | +51.0 pts | $1.6K | $5.1K | — | 1d |
| 77 |  Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 5d | August 315.5% July 311.8% +1 more | — | -0.4 pts | $1.5K | — | $39.1K | 5d |
| 78 | FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner KalshiSports· ends 2y | Javokhir Sindarov70% Gukesh Dommaraju30% +7 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.4K | $7.0K | — | 2y |
| 79 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August PolymarketEconomics· ends 16d | No change59% 25 bps increase34% +3 more | — | +5.5 pts | $1.4K | — | $22.3K | 16d |
| 80 |  China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld· ends 158d | No93% Yes6.9% | — | — | $1.4K | — | $98.7K | 158d |
| 81 |  Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? PolymarketWorld· ends Closed | No93% Yes7.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $1.4K | — | $80.3K | Closed |
| 82 | 2030 FIFA World Cup Champion KalshiSports· ends 4y | Spain17% France14% +80 more | — | — | $1.3K | $19.4K | — | 4y |
| 83 | Lowest temperature in Phoenix on Jul 25, 2026? KalshiWorld· ends 1d | 94° to 95°42% 96° or above31% +4 more | — | +42.0 pts | $1.3K | $4.3K | — | 1d |
| 84 | US-Iran nuclear deal? KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | Before Aug 1, 20260.3% No100% | — | — | $1.3K | $20.8K | — | 2y |
| 85 |  US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No95% Yes4.5% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.2K | — | $37.0K | 158d |
| 86 |  Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No95% Yes5.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $1.1K | — | $89.0K | 158d |
| 87 |  Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No97% Yes3.3% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.1K | — | $54.1K | 158d |
| 88 |  Will US withdraw from NATO by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 313.1% August 311.1% | — | +0.1 pts | $1.0K | — | $79.2K | 158d |
| 89 |  How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | 544% 439% +10 more | — | -0.1 pts | $961 | — | $350.7K | 158d |
| 90 |  Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No66% Yes35% | — | -9.0 pts | $920 | — | $20.3K | 158d |
| 91 |  Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Yes68% No32% | — | +0.5 pts | $876 | — | $21.9K | 158d |
| 92 |  Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No84% Yes17% | — | -5.5 pts | $870 | — | $16.8K | 158d |
| 93 |  Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday? PolymarketPolitics· ends 3d | No87% Yes14% | — | — | $800 | — | $10.6K | 3d |
| 94 |  Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | India22% South Korea21% +15 more | — | -2.0 pts | $783 | — | $122.9K | 158d |
| 95 | [ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026? ManifoldWorld· ends 159d | Yes10% No90% | — | — | M$1.7K | — | $51 | 159d |
| 96 | Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026? ManifoldWorld· ends 160d | Yes21% No79% | — | — | M$1.0K | — | $51 | 160d |
| 97 | Will Israel attack Iran in July 2026? ManifoldWorld· ends 6d | Yes42% No58% | — | — | M$519 | — | $4 | 6d |