World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, conflict and global events. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19% Jon Ossoff16% +49 more | — | +0.6 pts | $1.28B | $2.14M | — | $78.15M | 2y |
| 2 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance24% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13% +50 more | — | -0.1 pts | $704.24M | $184.0K | — | $60.87M | 2y |
| 3 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance50% Marco Rubio19% +40 more | — | — | $701.67M | $318.2K | — | $54.56M | 2y |
| 4 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro55% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva44% +17 more | — | +8.7 pts | $147.25M | $1.11M | — | $17.00M | 23d |
| 5 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen38% Édouard Philippe30% +39 more | — | -0.1 pts | $130.94M | $1.62M | — | $15.63M | 231d |
| 6 |  Netanyahu out by...? PolymarketPolitics | Yes54% No47% | — | — | $124.26M | $4.3K | — | $97.7K | 112d |
| 7 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No85% Yes16% | — | +1.0 pts | $65.38M | $326.2K | — | $704.1K | 112d |
| 8 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | +0.2 pts | $41.15M | $49.4K | — | $461.2K | 111d |
| 9 |  MLB World Series Champion 2026 PolymarketSports | Los Angeles Dodgers32% Milwaukee Brewers13% +24 more | — | — | $40.34M | $76.6K | — | $3.49M | 51d |
| 10 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mojtaba Khamenei85% No Head of State4.3% +28 more | — | +0.5 pts | $39.38M | $17.9K | — | $1.99M | 111d |
| 11 |  Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot56% Benjamin Netanyahu28% +17 more | — | +0.3 pts | $36.97M | $58.1K | — | $2.20M | 111d |
| 12 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics | Yes96% No3.5% | — | -0.1 pts | $30.07M | $68.2K | — | $187.1K | 20d |
| 13 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | September 1590% September 3085% +3 more | — | — | $29.54M | $332.8K | — | $244.0K | 111d |
| 14 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3158% October 3132% +3 more | — | -1.2 pts | $27.31M | $239.6K | — | $430.9K | 112d |
| 15 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)77% New People (NL)20% +6 more | — | +2.0 pts | $26.65M | $400.9K | — | $2.55M | 9d |
| 16 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes6.5% | — | — | $25.71M | $11.9K | — | $546.6K | 112d |
| 17 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 PolymarketPolitics | UNHCR41% ICRC41% +29 more | — | — | $23.81M | $4.0K | — | $1.65M | 29d |
| 18 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202714% December 31, 20266.5% +1 more | — | -1.0 pts | $23.47M | $246.9K | — | $888.8K | 293d |
| 19 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No96% Yes3.9% | — | — | $13.15M | $39.0K | — | $204.8K | 112d |
| 20 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3125% October 3120% +2 more | — | +7.5 pts | $12.61M | $219.7K | — | $294.9K | 112d |
| 21 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No84% Yes17% | — | -2.0 pts | $11.23M | $277.2K | — | $406.2K | 111d |
| 22 |  Which party will win the House in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party87% Republican Party14% | — | -1.0 pts | $10.55M | $145.4K | — | $987.1K | 53d |
| 23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes1.6% | — | -0.1 pts | $8.31M | $148.5K | — | $288.9K | 19d |
| 24 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro74% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23% +16 more | — | -5.5 pts | $6.85M | $111.2K | — | $1.72M | 23d |
| 25 |  NATO x Russia military clash by...? PolymarketWorld | December 3123% October 317.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $6.74M | $2.7K | — | $67.2K | 112d |
| 26 |  Next Prime Minister of Sweden PolymarketPolitics | Magdalena Andersson86% Ulf Kristersson16% +8 more | — | +5.0 pts | $5.17M | $87.0K | — | $1.28M | 2d |
| 27 | Russia Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)99% New People (NL)0.4% +6 more | — | +0.1 pts | $3.66M | $27.1K | — | $875.3K | 9d |
| 28 |  Berlin State Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Linke59% CDU22% +6 more | — | +6.0 pts | $3.61M | $46.2K | — | $454.6K | 9d |
| 29 |  Crude Oil all time high by...? PolymarketWorld | December 3121% September 304.0% | — | +9.5 pts | $3.57M | $185.2K | — | $213.9K | 112d |
| 30 |  Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No meeting before 202793% Switzerland1.8% +12 more | — | +0.5 pts | $3.41M | $84.9K | — | $732.9K | 112d |
| 31 |  China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No93% Yes6.7% | — | -1.1 pts | $3.34M | $7.5K | — | $69.4K | 112d |
| 32 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No89% Yes12% | — | +1.0 pts | $3.14M | $33.5K | — | $221.8K | 1y |
| 33 | US-Iran nuclear deal? KalshiPolitics | Before Oct 1, 20262.0% No98% | — | — | $3.08M | $1.2K | $18.5K | — | 2y |
| 34 |  Will Russia capture Lyman by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3112% September 301.7% | — | -2.0 pts | $3.02M | $4.1K | — | $49.6K | 112d |
| 35 |  Iran coup attempt by...? PolymarketWorld | No91% Yes9.5% | — | -4.0 pts | $2.13M | $2.2K | — | $25.2K | 112d |
| 36 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | -0.1 pts | $2.11M | $13.7K | — | $97.1K | 20d |
| 37 | FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner KalshiSports | Javokhir Sindarov69% Gukesh Dommaraju32% +7 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.05M | $391 | $2.8K | — | 2y |
| 38 |  US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) PolymarketPolitics | September 3075% September 1871% +3 more | — | +4.5 pts | $1.92M | $217.8K | — | $140.3K | 20d |
| 39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | — | $1.88M | $112.8K | — | $365.2K | 4d |
| 40 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Reza Pahlavi3.0% No97% | — | -4.0 pts | $1.83M | $8 | $250 | — | 112d |
| 41 | 866% 929% +6 more | — | +3.6 pts | $1.67M | $22.2K | — | $40.5K | 112d | |
| 42 | Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Yes5.8% No94% | — | -0.5 pts | $1.63M | $37 | $634 | — | 112d |
| 43 |  China x Japan military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No94% Yes6.5% | — | — | $1.34M | $2.7K | — | $57.6K | 112d |
| 44 |  Iran Nuke before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes4.7% | — | -0.4 pts | $1.29M | $11.5K | — | $95.8K | 112d |
| 45 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No85% Yes16% | — | — | $1.10M | $81.1K | — | $84.3K | 112d |
| 46 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Augusto Cury46% Renan Santos43% +17 more | — | +0.7 pts | $1.07M | $17.3K | — | $697.7K | 23d |
| 47 |  Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? PolymarketPolitics | December 3120% September 302.6% | — | -2.5 pts | $1.06M | $8.5K | — | $97.7K | 112d |
| 48 | Before 20276.9% No93% | — | -0.1 pts | $1.02M | $7 | $98 | — | 112d | |
| 49 |  Who will Trump meet with in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mohammed bin Salman73% Vladimir Putin64% +13 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.01M | $2.4K | — | $170.1K | 112d |
| 50 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | AfD84% SPD17% +6 more | — | +6.0 pts | $1.01M | $138.2K | — | $339.4K | 9d |
| 51 |  Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | China59% No meeting by December 3131% +13 more | — | +3.0 pts | $994.0K | $51.4K | — | $209.7K | 112d |
| 52 |  Quebec General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PQ77% CAQ24% +4 more | — | +1.0 pts | $897.1K | $2.7K | — | $176.2K | 24d |
| 53 |  Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $811.8K | $2.4K | — | $37.3K | 112d |
| 54 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? KalshiTech & Science | Grants license9.1% No91% | — | -0.7 pts | $785.5K | $248 | $2.7K | — | 112d |
| 55 |  Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase98% No change1.4% +3 more | — | +0.5 pts | $726.4K | $19.9K | — | $121.0K | 7d |
| 56 | Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes0.6% | — | — | $670.6K | $55.1K | — | $110.1K | 10d |
| 57 | 2030 FIFA World Cup Champion KalshiSports | France12% Spain10% +80 more | — | +0.9 pts | $667.5K | $69 | $3.2K | — | 4y |
| 58 | Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? PolymarketPolitics | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva98% Flavio Bolsonaro97% +7 more | — | +0.3 pts | $593.0K | $5.3K | — | $213.4K | 23d |
| 59 | Fay38% Gonzalo31% +19 more | — | -5.0 pts | $587.0K | $641 | $45.3K | — | 81d | |
| 60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $576.3K | $85.4K | — | $148.1K | 50d |
| 61 |  United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? PolymarketPolitics | 325–33939% 340–35424% +5 more | — | +2.5 pts | $526.4K | $78.7K | — | $449.2K | 9d |
| 62 |  Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No85% Yes15% | — | +3.4 pts | $503.6K | $91.1K | — | $39.0K | 112d |
| 63 | Before 20273.0% No97% | — | -2.0 pts | $460.1K | $13 | $443 | — | 112d | |
| 64 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Lula da Silva <5%33% Lula da Silva 5-10%25% +9 more | — | -13.5 pts | $430.6K | $18.2K | — | $340.3K | 23d |
| 65 |  Bank of Russia decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No Change81% Decrease19% +1 more | — | -9.0 pts | $419.0K | $77.6K | — | $71.0K | 1d |
| 66 | Saudi Arabia5.0% No95% | — | — | $352.0K | $5 | $51 | — | 112d | |
| 67 | Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? KalshiWorld | Hottest81% No19% | — | +3.1 pts | $335.7K | $1.6K | $2.0K | — | 112d |
| 68 | Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Yes4.0% No96% | — | — | $305.4K | $9 | $218 | — | 171d |
| 69 | Before 202716% No84% | — | -4.0 pts | $295.4K | $161 | $1.0K | — | 111d | |
| 70 | No92% Yes7.5% | — | -0.7 pts | $233.0K | $8.5K | — | $63.4K | 23d | |
| 71 |  NATO article 5 before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes5.5% | — | -0.1 pts | $224.3K | $8.7K | — | $48.0K | 112d |
| 72 | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? KalshiPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot62% Benjamin Netanyahu28% +16 more | — | -1.0 pts | $180.4K | $946 | $2.9K | — | 1y |
| 73 |  2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner PolymarketPolitics | Kuomintang (KMT)92% Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)8.6% +1 more | — | — | $170.3K | $5.5K | — | $175.2K | 78d |
| 74 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Linke85% CDU11% +6 more | — | +10.0 pts | $84.6K | $29.0K | — | $137.1K | 9d |
| 75 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | SPD84% AfD13% +6 more | — | +5.0 pts | $83.9K | $21.0K | — | $112.9K | 9d |
| 76 | Bank of Japan Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change85% 25 bps increase13% +3 more | — | +1.5 pts | $81.2K | $2.6K | — | $15.0K | 49d |
| 77 | Pro Baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Leader KalshiSports | Pete Crow-Armstrong95% Nico Hoerner21% +55 more | — | +18.0 pts | $71.0K | $1.9K | $2.6K | — | 41d |
| 78 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 31%+72% 28-31%22% +2 more | — | +0.5 pts | $67.7K | $15.4K | — | $94.1K | 10d |
| 79 |  Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 17-20%39% 20-23%35% +2 more | — | -2.0 pts | $59.9K | $7.4K | — | $30.3K | 10d |
| 80 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | <8%75% 8-11%24% +2 more | — | +31.0 pts | $58.8K | $11.0K | — | $67.6K | 10d |
| 81 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 8-11%55% <8%28% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $54.8K | $20.7K | — | $66.7K | 10d |
| 82 |  Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? PolymarketPolitics | No change87% 25 bps increase14% +3 more | — | -2.0 pts | $34.4K | $3.2K | — | $11.3K | 48d |
| 83 |  Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 14-17%47% 17-20%28% +2 more | — | +8.5 pts | $34.2K | $7.2K | — | $27.9K | 10d |
| 84 |  Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? PolymarketPolitics | AfD54% CDU37% +5 more | — | +6.5 pts | $34.0K | $5.4K | — | $15.0K | 112d |
| 85 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 3-5%53% 5-7%40% +2 more | — | +7.0 pts | $33.7K | $10.8K | — | $26.2K | 10d |
| 86 | Linke83% CDU17% | — | -8.0 pts | $31.6K | $7.9K | — | $7.2K | 10d | |
| 87 | Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? ManifoldWorld | Yes5.5% No95% | — | — | $30.6K | M$6.4K | — | $100 | 112d |
| 88 |  Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No63% Yes38% | — | +2.0 pts | $25.5K | $4.4K | — | $3.5K | 112d |
| 89 | Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 10-13%52% 13-16%26% +2 more | — | -3.0 pts | $21.1K | $2.1K | — | $10.7K | 10d |
| 90 | Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 17-20%48% 20%+31% +2 more | — | +2.5 pts | $21.1K | $2.0K | — | $14.8K | 10d |
| 91 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 5-7%54% 3-5%37% +2 more | — | — | $19.1K | $3.2K | — | $10.5K | 10d |
| 92 |  Bank of Korea decision in November? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps hike66% No Change30% +3 more | — | +9.5 pts | $17.0K | $3.3K | — | $5.4K | 76d |
| 93 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? PolymarketPolitics | Under90% Over10% | — | -9.5 pts | $15.9K | $3.2K | — | $6.7K | 10d |
| 94 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? PolymarketPolitics | Over72% Under28% | — | — | $6.8K | $6.8K | — | $2.9K | 10d |
| 95 | Yes5.3% No95% | — | — | $3.5K | M$4.0K | — | $70 | 54d | |
| 96 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | SDA83% DF8.0% +5 more | — | +47.5 pts | $2.3K | $2.3K | — | $4.5K | 24d |
| 97 | Gears of War: E-Day: Metacritic score KalshiWorld | Above 1098% No2.0% | — | +98.0 pts | $1.6K | $1.0K | $1.6K | — | 32d |
| 98 | World Series Champion Polymarket USSports | Los Angeles Dodgers31% Milwaukee Brewers15% +24 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17d |
| 99 | Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War? Polymarket USPolitics | No42% Yes37% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 112d |
| 100 | FIDE World Chess Championship Winner 2026 Polymarket USSports | Javokhir Sindarov71% Gukesh Dommaraju33% +6 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98d |
