World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, conflict and global events. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17% Gavin Newsom15% +51 more | — | — | $1.30B | $138.6K | — | $74.98M | 2y |
| 2 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance20% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13% +52 more | — | -0.6 pts | $719.67M | $660.1K | — | $60.05M | 2y |
| 3 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance37% Marco Rubio18% +41 more | — | -7.1 pts | $717.14M | $573.3K | — | $50.85M | 2y |
| 4 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen44% Édouard Philippe17% +43 more | — | +0.1 pts | $157.29M | $597.8K | — | $19.43M | 174d |
| 5 |  Netanyahu out by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202786% March 31, 202770% +1 more | — | — | $124.67M | $19.9K | — | $136.9K | 66d |
| 6 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No82% Yes19% | — | -1.0 pts | $75.50M | $138.9K | — | $360.4K | 66d |
| 7 |  Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot58% Benjamin Netanyahu27% +17 more | — | +5.3 pts | $55.14M | $1.96M | — | $4.15M | 1d |
| 8 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes1.9% | — | -0.1 pts | $45.04M | $78.0K | — | $413.8K | 66d |
| 9 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | March 3160% December 3135% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $42.84M | $227.0K | — | $379.6K | 66d |
| 10 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mojtaba Khamenei86% No Head of State5.0% +28 more | — | +0.4 pts | $40.49M | $24.5K | — | $1.97M | 66d |
| 11 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | October 24100% October 2797% +4 more | — | — | $39.36M | $302.9K | — | $390.2K | 66d |
| 12 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 20279.5% December 31, 20262.0% | — | -1.0 pts | $30.64M | $134.7K | — | $832.8K | 247d |
| 13 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes6.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $28.04M | $91.6K | — | $431.7K | 66d |
| 14 |  US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | October 24100% October 2895% +6 more | — | +0.1 pts | $26.98M | $1.49M | — | $658.8K | 5d |
| 15 |  Which party will win the House in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party92% Republican Party7.5% | — | — | $23.66M | $2.21M | — | $6.90M | 8d |
| 16 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No96% Yes3.6% | — | -0.1 pts | $16.08M | $380.1K | — | $256.6K | 66d |
| 17 |  NATO x Russia military clash by...? PolymarketWorld | December 3117% November 309.5% +2 more | — | -2.0 pts | $12.56M | $88.1K | — | $199.5K | 68d |
| 18 |  Iran full airspace closure by...? PolymarketWorld | December 3138% October 316.0% | — | -3.0 pts | $10.66M | $107.3K | — | $68.2K | 66d |
| 19 |  Next Prime Minister of Sweden PolymarketPolitics | Magdalena Andersson74% Ulf Kristersson21% +8 more | — | -2.0 pts | $10.50M | $82.7K | — | $879.0K | 247d |
| 20 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party65% Republican Party36% | — | -1.0 pts | $9.29M | $180.0K | — | $2.87M | 8d |
| 21 |  Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 20278.5% December 312.7% | — | — | $4.47M | $48.7K | — | $133.7K | 247d |
| 22 |  Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No meeting before 202793% US2.3% +12 more | — | -0.5 pts | $4.00M | $9.2K | — | $940.0K | 66d |
| 23 |  Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $3.68M | $17.2K | — | $98.5K | 66d |
| 24 |  Israeli Legislative Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Yashar71% Likud30% +4 more | — | — | $3.60M | $929.7K | — | $987.1K | 1d |
| 25 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | +0.1 pts | $3.39M | $102.1K | — | $300.3K | 5d |
| 26 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202740% June 30, 202731% +4 more | — | — | $3.02M | $10.9K | — | $278.5K | 66d |
| 27 |  Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.5% | — | -2.0 pts | $2.88M | $4.1K | — | $77.5K | 66d |
| 28 |  Macron out by...? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes5.6% | — | +0.9 pts | $2.23M | $5.7K | — | $62.1K | 66d |
| 29 |  Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | China77% No meeting by December 3119% +13 more | — | +0.5 pts | $1.99M | $7.9K | — | $619.6K | 66d |
| 30 |  Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | Somaliland12% Jordan8.5% +10 more | — | +1.5 pts | $1.83M | $3.0K | — | $175.5K | 66d |
| 31 | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? KalshiPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot56% Benjamin Netanyahu25% +16 more | — | +7.0 pts | $1.52M | $69.7K | $235.6K | — | 1y |
| 32 |  Iran Nuke before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.6% | — | -0.3 pts | $1.44M | $6.6K | — | $118.3K | 66d |
| 33 |  Who will Trump meet with in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Vladimir Putin81% Mohammed bin Salman71% +12 more | — | -1.0 pts | $1.39M | $6.6K | — | $320.2K | 66d |
| 34 |  Israel Election: Likud # of seats? PolymarketPolitics | 20-2445% <2027% +3 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.36M | $190.1K | — | $392.2K | 1d |
| 35 |  France declares state of emergency by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3111% October 311.8% | — | +3.0 pts | $1.16M | $257.4K | — | $136.9K | 66d |
| 36 |  Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? PolymarketPolitics | No88% Yes13% | — | +7.0 pts | $1.15M | $7.4K | — | $22.5K | 66d |
| 37 |  Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 PolymarketPolitics | Yes80% No20% | — | +1.5 pts | $866.3K | $4.2K | — | $39.3K | 66d |
| 38 |  Toronto Mayoral Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Olivia Chow78% Brad Bradford22% +6 more | — | +16.5 pts | $842.0K | $134.2K | — | $553.7K | 11h |
| 39 | 2030 FIFA World Cup Champion KalshiSports | Spain15% France11% +80 more | — | -0.7 pts | $833.5K | $36 | $313 | — | 4y |
| 40 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.5% | — | — | $738.5K | $8.5K | — | $214.8K | 66d |
| 41 |  Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate PolymarketPolitics | Lula, Eizenkot, Dems46% Lula, Netanyahu, Reps18% +4 more | — | +33.7 pts | $444.2K | $149.5K | — | $93.1K | 8d |
| 42 |  Modi out by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No97% Yes3.5% | — | -0.4 pts | $433.3K | $4.7K | — | $179.3K | 66d |
| 43 | Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Yes2.9% No97% | — | +1.6 pts | $325.3K | $4 | $151 | — | 125d |
| 44 |  2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner PolymarketPolitics | Kuomintang (KMT)69% Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)32% +1 more | — | -1.0 pts | $315.8K | $2.8K | — | $182.7K | 33d |
| 45 |  Bank of Japan Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change97% 25 bps increase2.2% +3 more | — | -0.1 pts | $276.2K | $4.9K | — | $77.1K | 3d |
| 46 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 313.3% November 151.2% +1 more | — | +0.5 pts | $272.9K | $7.8K | — | $134.0K | 66d |
| 47 | Above 87.5 TWh96% No4.0% | — | — | $256.4K | $3.2K | $4.0K | — | 124d | |
| 48 |  Yoon out of custody before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes7.7% | — | +2.5 pts | $241.9K | $5.9K | — | $36.3K | 66d |
| 49 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027 PolymarketPolitics | Committee to Protect Journalists10% Julian Assange9.0% +15 more | — | — | $234.1K | $52.1K | — | $276.9K | 1y |
| 50 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase65% No change31% +3 more | — | -2.6 pts | $212.0K | $3.2K | — | $38.9K | 8d |
| 51 |  Spain General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PP81% PSOE19% +3 more | — | +3.5 pts | $207.0K | $26.2K | — | $305.3K | 34d |
| 52 |  Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 5.00-5.49%53% 5.50-5.99%26% +8 more | — | -5.2 pts | $181.9K | $3.6K | — | $17.9K | 78d |
| 53 |  Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes2.3% | — | +0.5 pts | $176.8K | $2.6K | — | $27.8K | 66d |
| 54 |  Next Israeli Minister of Defense? PolymarketPolitics | No Next Minister by Feb 2836% Avigdor Lieberman17% +17 more | — | -3.5 pts | $156.0K | $23.7K | — | $451.7K | 125d |
| 55 | Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? PolymarketPolitics | No Next Minister by Feb 2842% Yair Lapid26% +13 more | — | +1.0 pts | $150.2K | $5.7K | — | $275.8K | 125d |
| 56 | 2.5°C to 2.9°C63% At least 3.0°C31% +3 more | — | — | $140.8K | $967 | $3.6K | — | 292d | |
| 57 |  Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase93% No change6.3% +3 more | — | -3.6 pts | $111.7K | $3.1K | — | $20.5K | 2d |
| 58 | Next Israeli Minister of Justice? PolymarketPolitics | No Next Minister by Feb 2844% Hili Tropper14% +11 more | — | +4.5 pts | $102.1K | $6.5K | — | $209.1K | 125d |
| 59 | Next Israeli Minister of Finance? PolymarketPolitics | No Next Minister by Feb 2843% Naftali Bennett16% +14 more | — | -3.5 pts | $99.7K | $3.2K | — | $268.3K | 125d |
| 60 | Next Israeli Minister of National Security? PolymarketPolitics | No Next Minister by Feb 2841% Yoram Cohen14% +17 more | — | -1.0 pts | $92.4K | $4.6K | — | $273.0K | 125d |
| 61 |  Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? PolymarketPolitics | UAE59% Switzerland22% +27 more | — | -5.0 pts | $79.8K | $5.3K | — | $341.9K | 1y |
| 62 | French Presidential Election First Round Winner PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen83% David Lisnard5.1% +14 more | — | +0.5 pts | $74.3K | $6.8K | — | $301.7K | 174d |
| 63 |  Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? PolymarketPolitics | Opp.53% Bibi48% | — | +9.5 pts | $60.4K | $15.5K | — | $52.7K | 1d |
| 64 | French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Jean-Luc Mélenchon40% Édouard Philippe22% +14 more | — | +0.5 pts | $42.8K | $3.5K | — | $296.9K | 174d |
| 65 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes18% | — | -1.0 pts | $39.3K | $7.0K | — | $42.4K | 1d |
| 66 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? PolymarketPolitics | No74% Yes27% | — | +1.0 pts | $38.6K | $6.0K | — | $93.4K | 1y |
| 67 | Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot68% Benjamin Netanyahu24% +17 more | — | -0.5 pts | $38.5K | $9.0K | — | $237.3K | 1d |
| 68 |  Israel Election: Together # of seats? PolymarketPolitics | 14-1633% 11-1330% +4 more | — | -20.0 pts | $36.9K | $3.3K | — | $48.3K | 1d |
| 69 | Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? ManifoldWorld | Yes3.5% No96% | — | — | $31.4K | M$12.5K | — | $100 | 66d |
| 70 |  Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats? PolymarketPolitics | <459% 4-643% +2 more | — | -12.0 pts | $22.4K | $4.7K | — | $99.2K | 1d |
| 71 |  Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats? PolymarketPolitics | 531% 629% +4 more | — | -4.5 pts | $20.1K | $2.9K | — | $37.5K | 1d |
| 72 |  Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes17% | — | -55.0 pts | $16.2K | $5.2K | — | $15.0K | 156d |
| 73 | Gadi Eisenkot71% Benjamin Netanyahu31% +5 more | — | -5.0 pts | $11.6K | $1.2K | $3.1K | — | 66d | |
| 74 | Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority? PolymarketPolitics | Yes80% No20% | — | +2.0 pts | $9.2K | $2.8K | — | $16.5K | 34d |
| 75 | Before Dec 6, 202647% No53% | — | -3.0 pts | $8.7K | $1.3K | $1.4K | — | 74d | |
| 76 | Spain General Election: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Vox84% Broad Front (FA)4.1% +3 more | — | -3.0 pts | $8.2K | $3.7K | — | $37.0K | 34d |
| 77 | Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo KalshiPolitics | Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats49% Lula, Netanyahu, Republicans38% +4 more | — | +49.0 pts | $4.7K | $1.3K | $3.4K | — | 1y |
| 78 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No93% Yes6.9% | — | +0.5 pts | $4.3K | $2.8K | — | $11.2K | 1y |
| 79 | Yes2.9% No97% | — | — | $3.9K | M$2.0K | — | $70 | 8d | |
| 80 | Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026? ManifoldWorld | Yes14% No86% | — | — | $1.2K | M$1.3K | — | $51 | 66d |
| 81 | Yes83% No17% | — | — | $119 | M$1.6K | — | $10 | 67d | |
| 82 | Yes42% No58% | — | — | $16 | M$515 | — | $10 | 5d | |
| 83 | World Series Champion Polymarket USSports | Milwaukee Brewers83% Tampa Bay Rays17% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6d |
| 84 | Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War? Polymarket USPolitics | No28% Yes27% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 85 | FIDE World Chess Championship Winner 2026 Polymarket USSports | Javokhir Sindarov72% Gukesh Dommaraju35% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 52d |
| 86 | Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election Polymarket USPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot61% Benjamin Netanyahu27% +5 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1d |
| 87 | What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026? Polymarket USWorld | 5% Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14% Dilution of Iran's Uranium13% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 88 | Zelenskyy Officially Out as Ukraine President? Polymarket USPolitics | By June 30, 202730% By December 31, 202610% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 247d |
| 89 | PDC World Darts Championship Winner Polymarket USSports | Luke Littler46% Luke Humphries13% +16 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 90 | MotoGP World Champion Polymarket USSports | Marc Marquez85% Jorge Martin8.0% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 34d |
| 91 | US-Iran Nuclear Deal? Polymarket USPolitics | By March 31, 202750% By December 31, 202614% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 156d |
| 92 | Which World Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? Polymarket USPolitics | Rodrigo Paz Pereira - President of Bolivia77% Pedro Sanchez - Prime Minister of Spain26% +26 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 93 | Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record? Polymarket USWorld | 1st83% 2nd11% +3 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 126d |
| 94 | Where Will 2027 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record? Polymarket USWorld | 1st46% 2nd27% +3 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1y |