Same Market, Two Prices
Some questions are traded on more than one site at the same time — and the sites don’t always agree on the odds. Here’s where they disagree most.
New here? How to read this
- 🎯 A prediction market lets people bet on whether something will happen. Its price acts like a percentage: “42%” means the market thinks there’s a 42% chance it happens.
- 📊 Each row below is one possible outcome, with that percentage on each site that trades it.
- ↔️ The gap is how far apart the sites are. Example: if one site says 20% and another says 24%, that’s a 4-point gap — one of them may be mispriced.
- ⚠️ A gap is a lead to investigate, not free money. The two markets can settle on slightly different terms (dates, wording, source), and trading has fees. Always open both and check before acting.
Pro Basketball Western Conference #1 Seed
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $24.4K tradedKalshi: $63.5K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 4.0% | 44% | 40 pt gap |
| San Antonio | 3.0% | 27% | 24 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 26% | 6.0% | 20 pt gap |
| Los Angeles L | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Denver | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Houston | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Portland | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Dallas | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Utah | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Phoenix | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Golden State | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.17M tradedKalshi: $2.12M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 12% | 49% | 37 pt gap |
| Atlanta | 39% | 1.0% | 38 pt gap |
| Houston | 39% | 1.0% | 38 pt gap |
| New Orleans | 38% | 1.0% | 37 pt gap |
| Seattle | 38% | 1.0% | 37 pt gap |
| Green Bay | 34% | 1.0% | 33 pt gap |
| Baltimore | 31% | 1.0% | 30 pt gap |
| Dallas | 27% | 1.0% | 26 pt gap |
| Washington | 22% | 3.0% | 19 pt gap |
| Tennessee | 1.0% | 15% | 14 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 2.0% | 14% | 12 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
NHL Playoff Qualifiers
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $78.1K tradedKalshi: $108.6K traded
Bitcoin above ___ on October 23?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $77.69M tradedPolymarket US: $21.90M traded
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $8.85M tradedPolymarket US: $112.9K traded
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $3.31M tradedPolymarket US: $7.40M traded
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $1.80M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $22.8K traded
Top U.S. Selling Vinyl Album: 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.5K tradedKalshi: $184.4K traded
Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $16.6K tradedKalshi: $332.6K traded
Brazil Presidential Election
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $192.33M tradedPolymarket US: $7.68M tradedKalshi: $138.8K traded
Pro Basketball Best Regular Season Record
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $149.8K tradedKalshi: $49.7K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 36% | 52% | 16 pt gap |
| San Antonio | 4.0% | 22% | 18 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 2.0% | 6.0% | 4 pt gap |
| New York | 1.0% | 6.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Boston | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Phoenix | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Detroit | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Houston | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Indiana | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.4K tradedKalshi: $751.6K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lee | 18% | 2.0% | 16 pt gap |
| Andrew Oldham | 1.0% | 13% | 12 pt gap |
| James Ho | 1.0% | 9.5% | 9 pt gap |
| Ted Cruz | 1.0% | 7.0% | 6 pt gap |
| Aileen Cannon | 1.0% | 6.8% | 6 pt gap |
| Neomi Rao | 1.0% | 4.6% | 4 pt gap |
| Emil Bove | 1.0% | 4.2% | 3 pt gap |
| Michael Park | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Amul Thapar | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2 pt gap |
| Steven Menashi | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Barbara Lagoa | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1 pt gap |
| Patrick Bumatay | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1 pt gap |
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $885.4K tradedPolymarket US: $757.8K traded
English Premier League Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $13.15M tradedKalshi: $5.45M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 48% | 61% | 13 pt gap |
| Manchester City | 20% | 20% | 0 pt gap |
| Chelsea | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Brighton | 4.0% | 6.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Liverpool | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Crystal Palace | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Everton | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Fulham | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Hull City | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Ipswich Town | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Nottingham Forest | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Sunderland | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Europa League Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.1K tradedKalshi: $45.5K traded
Pro Basketball Eastern Conference #1 Seed
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $207.0K tradedKalshi: $399.6K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 21% | 21% | 0 pt gap |
| New York | 9.0% | 20% | 11 pt gap |
| Boston | 7.0% | 19% | 12 pt gap |
| Detroit | 10% | 11% | 1 pt gap |
| Miami | 3.0% | 10% | 7 pt gap |
| Toronto | 4.0% | 9.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 6.0% | 8.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Indiana | 1.0% | 5.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Washington | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Atlanta | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Orlando | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Charlotte | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $1.30B tradedPolymarket US: $16.30M tradedKalshi: $245.86M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 15% | 20% | 13% | 7 pt gap |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17% | 13% | 14% | 4 pt gap |
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | 17% | 16% | 1 pt gap |
| Kamala Harris | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 1 pt gap |
| Andy Beshear | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2 pt gap |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 0 pt gap |
| Mark Kelly | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2 pt gap |
| James Talarico | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1 pt gap |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2 pt gap |
| Raphael Warnock | 2.0% | — | 2.2% | 0 pt gap |
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $18.56M tradedKalshi: $3.66M traded
Next French Presidential Election
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $155.56M tradedPolymarket US: $2.20M tradedKalshi: $990.3K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 46% | 53% | 53% | 7 pt gap |
| Édouard Philippe | 18% | 13% | 15% | 4 pt gap |
| David Lisnard | 14% | 13% | 10% | 4 pt gap |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 2 pt gap |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 4.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 4 pt gap |
| François Hollande | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.6% | — | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1 pt gap |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0 pt gap |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0 pt gap |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0 pt gap |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1 pt gap |
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $51.44M tradedPolymarket US: $5.03M tradedKalshi: $951.0K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 49% | 52% | 47% | 5 pt gap |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 28% | 32% | 29% | 4 pt gap |
| Naftali Bennett | 16% | 12% | 13% | 4 pt gap |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.1% | — | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.1% | — | 2.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.4% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Israel Katz | 0.3% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Yair Golan | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Amir Ohana | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket US: $1.75M tradedKalshi: $4.59M traded
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $410.9K tradedKalshi: $268.8K traded
Liga MX Clausura Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $1.29M tradedKalshi: $553.0K traded
NFC North Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $4.18M tradedKalshi: $3.10M traded
Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.00M tradedKalshi: $961.5K traded
Oscar winner: Best Actress
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $928.1K tradedKalshi: $320.3K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore | 67% | 72% | 5 pt gap |
| Inde Navarrette | 20% | 20% | 0 pt gap |
| Sandra Hüller | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Anne hathaway | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Penélope Cruz | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Renate Reinsve | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Natalie Portman | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Joan Collins | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Scarlett Johansson | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Dakota Johnson | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Mikey Madison | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Cynthia Erivo | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Serie A Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.51M tradedKalshi: $289.0K traded
Oscar Winner: Best Actor
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.72M tradedKalshi: $1.34M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 38% | 42% | 4 pt gap |
| Andrew Scott | 17% | 17% | 0 pt gap |
| Matt Damon | 15% | 17% | 2 pt gap |
| Tom Cruise | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Timothée Chalamet | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Robert Pattinson | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Keanu Reeves | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jeremy Strong | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Ethan Hawke | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Josh O'Connor | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Channing Tatum | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Sebastian Stan | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.12M tradedKalshi: $1.34M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 33% | 37% | 4 pt gap |
| San Antonio | 33% | 32% | 1 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 11% | 11% | 0 pt gap |
| Los Angeles L | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Houston | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Denver | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Portland | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Golden State | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Dallas | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| New Orleans | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Phoenix | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $59.50M tradedPolymarket US: $37.06M traded
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $917.4K tradedPolymarket US: $1.34M tradedKalshi: $3.17M traded
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $42.20M tradedKalshi: $428.5K traded
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $718.36M tradedKalshi: $75.98M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20% | 21% | 1 pt gap |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 9.4% | 3 pt gap |
| Gavin Newsom | 9.3% | 11% | 2 pt gap |
| Marco Rubio | 8.6% | 10% | 1 pt gap |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.8% | 9.3% | 0 pt gap |
| Kamala Harris | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0 pt gap |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0 pt gap |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0 pt gap |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1 pt gap |
| Andy Beshear | 2.1% | 2.6% | 0 pt gap |
| Donald Trump | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1 pt gap |
| Mark Kelly | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1 pt gap |
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $715.86M tradedPolymarket US: $7.77M tradedKalshi: $70.46M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 44% | 42% | 41% | 3 pt gap |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | 18% | 18% | 3 pt gap |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3 pt gap |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2 pt gap |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1 pt gap |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1 pt gap |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0 pt gap |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2 pt gap |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 2 pt gap |
| Brian Kemp | 0.5% | — | 1.6% | 1 pt gap |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.3% | — | 1.2% | 0 pt gap |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0 pt gap |
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket US: $4.75M tradedManifold: $3.0K traded
NFC Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $18.46M tradedKalshi: $13.34M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 25% | 28% | 3 pt gap |
| Chicago | 15% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 12% | 12% | 0 pt gap |
| Seattle | 12% | 11% | 1 pt gap |
| Los Angeles R | 10% | 9.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Detroit | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Green Bay | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Dallas | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Carolina | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Atlanta | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| New Orleans | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Arizona | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
AFC North Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.64M tradedKalshi: $2.25M traded
AFC East Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.48M tradedKalshi: $895.5K traded
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $59.59M tradedPolymarket US: $35.88M tradedKalshi: $4.82M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 24% | 25% | 25% | 2 pt gap |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 18% | 20% | — | 3 pt gap |
| Arsenal | 14% | 15% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Bayern Munich | 14% | 13% | 14% | 1 pt gap |
| Real Madrid | 11% | 9.0% | 12% | 3 pt gap |
| Manchester City | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Liverpool | 4.5% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Atlético Madrid | 2.3% | 1.0% | — | 1 pt gap |
| Aston Villa | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Inter Milan | 1.9% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Manchester United | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
AFC Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $19.25M tradedKalshi: $12.69M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 21% | 20% | 1 pt gap |
| Kansas City | 20% | 17% | 3 pt gap |
| Baltimore | 13% | 14% | 1 pt gap |
| Jacksonville | 11% | 12% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 6.0% | 9.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Cincinnati | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0 pt gap |
| New England | 6.0% | 8.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Houston | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Pittsburgh | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Las Vegas | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Indianapolis | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
NFC East Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $4.92M tradedKalshi: $5.66M traded
Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.45M tradedKalshi: $3.32M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 22% | 22% | 0 pt gap |
| New York | 22% | 19% | 3 pt gap |
| Boston | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Miami | 10% | 11% | 1 pt gap |
| Toronto | 9.0% | 10% | 1 pt gap |
| Indiana | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Detroit | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Atlanta | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Orlando | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Washington | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Charlotte | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
NFC South Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.80M tradedKalshi: $1.67M traded
AFC West Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.66M tradedKalshi: $1.15M traded
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $10.82M tradedKalshi: $12.62M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Florida | 14% | 13% | 1 pt gap |
| Illinois | 7.0% | 6.1% | 1 pt gap |
| Texas | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0 pt gap |
| Arizona | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Michigan St. | 4.0% | 3.9% | 0 pt gap |
| Arkansas | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0 pt gap |
| Kansas | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Gonzaga | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2 pt gap |
| Michigan | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2 pt gap |
| Kentucky | 4.0% | 1.3% | 3 pt gap |
| Texas Tech | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1 pt gap |
Pro Football: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $68.95M tradedPolymarket US: $397.90M tradedKalshi: $195.84M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 15% | 17% | 18% | 3 pt gap |
| Buffalo | 11% | 11% | 12% | 2 pt gap |
| Kansas City | 11% | 10% | 11% | 1 pt gap |
| Baltimore | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Chicago | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Jacksonville | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Los Angeles R | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Seattle | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Cincinnati | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Detroit | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket: $995.1K tradedPolymarket US: $661.6K traded
IA-01 House winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.75M tradedKalshi: $380.9K traded
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $381.0K tradedPolymarket US: $1.02M tradedKalshi: $860.9K traded
College Football National Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $58.65M tradedKalshi: $63.82M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 17% | 16% | 1 pt gap |
| Miami (FL) | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Notre Dame | 12% | 14% | 2 pt gap |
| Ohio St. | 13% | 13% | 0 pt gap |
| Indiana | 9.0% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| LSU | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Ole Miss | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Alabama | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Texas | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| BYU | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Tennessee | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Texas Tech | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
Oscar Winner: Best Picture
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $6.61M tradedKalshi: $9.86M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 45% | 46% | 1 pt gap |
| You Can See Everything | 25% | 27% | 2 pt gap |
| The Black Ball | 17% | 17% | 0 pt gap |
| Dune: Part Three | 10% | 10% | 0 pt gap |
| Digger | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Wild Horse Nine | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Artificial | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Project Hail Mary | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Disclosure Day | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Fjord | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| The Social Reckoning | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| The Entertainment System Is Down | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
NBA: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $29.24M tradedPolymarket US: $87.21M tradedKalshi: $45.18M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 24% | 25% | 25% | 2 pt gap |
| San Antonio | 20% | 20% | 21% | 1 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 10% | 10% | 11% | 1 pt gap |
| New York | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Boston | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Miami | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Toronto | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Los Angeles L | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Denver | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Detroit | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Indiana | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
Pro Basketball MVP Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $49.81M tradedKalshi: $4.12M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 30% | 31% | 1 pt gap |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Anthony Edwards | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Nikola Jokić | 12% | 13% | 1 pt gap |
| Luka Doncic | 12% | 13% | 1 pt gap |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jayson Tatum | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Cade Cunningham | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Jalen Brunson | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Tyrese Maxey | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Alperen Sengun | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Joel Embiid | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
AFC South Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $908.7K tradedKalshi: $1.44M traded
South Dakota Senate winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $1.11M tradedKalshi: $444.2K traded
MN-05 House winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $292.4K tradedKalshi: $794.5K traded
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $30.49M tradedPolymarket US: $23.25M tradedKalshi: $51.58M traded
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $2.15M tradedPolymarket US: $7.93M traded
NFC West Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.66M tradedKalshi: $1.90M traded
Montana Senate winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $526.0K tradedKalshi: $997.7K traded
Fed Decision in October?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $57.39M tradedPolymarket US: $22.24M traded
Tennessee Governor winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $578.5K tradedKalshi: $249.0K traded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket US: $3.75M tradedManifold: $106 traded
EPL: Team Points
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $36.4K tradedKalshi: $177.3K traded