Same Market, Two Prices
Some questions are traded on more than one site at the same time — and the sites don’t always agree on the odds. Here’s where they disagree most.
- 🎯 A prediction market lets people bet on whether something will happen. Its price acts like a percentage: “42%” means the market thinks there’s a 42% chance it happens.
- 📊 Each row below is one possible outcome, with that percentage on each site that trades it.
- ↔️ The gap is how far apart the sites are. Example: if one site says 20% and another says 24%, that’s a 4-point gap — one of them may be mispriced.
- ⚠️ A gap is a lead to investigate, not free money. The two markets can settle on slightly different terms (dates, wording, source), and trading has fees. Always open both and check before acting.
Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
What price will Ethereum hit July 20-26?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22,000 to 22,499.99 | 2.3% | 5.0% | 3 pt gap |
| 31,000 to 31,499.99 | 2.3% | 5.0% | 3 pt gap |
| 31,500 to 31,999.99 | 0.2% | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| 28,000 to 28,499.99 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| 28,500 to 28,999.99 | 0.2% | 4.0% | 4 pt gap |
| 29,000 to 29,499.99 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| 29,500 to 29,999.99 | 0.2% | 4.0% | 4 pt gap |
| 30,000 to 30,499.99 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
EPL: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
NBA: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Hungarian Grand Prix: Driver Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Brazil Presidential Election
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites