Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political outcomes across venues. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in July? PolymarketPolitics· ends 3d | No change74% 25 bps increase25% +3 more | — | -0.1 pts | $2.94M | — | $4.00M | 3d |
| 2 |  Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | Abiy Ahmed93% Alesa Mengesha2.8% +6 more | — | -2.1 pts | $2.00M | — | $176.5K | Closed |
| 3 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 37d | July 23100% July 22100% +10 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.55M | — | $470.6K | 37d |
| 4 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | JD Vance20% Marco Rubio13% +48 more | — | +0.1 pts | $732.8K | — | $48.48M | 2y |
| 5 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | Gavin Newsom20% Jon Ossoff16% +49 more | — | — | $706.5K | — | $72.79M | 2y |
| 6 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No70% Yes31% | — | — | $604.7K | — | $787.8K | 158d |
| 7 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Mojtaba Khamenei73% No Head of State7.5% +28 more | — | +0.7 pts | $484.2K | — | $1.65M | 158d |
| 8 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 5d | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $412.3K | — | $539.0K | 5d |
| 9 |  Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | August 3194% July 3193% +2 more | — | +38.4 pts | $385.8K | — | $229.6K | Closed |
| 10 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | August 3146% August 1539% +2 more | — | -9.5 pts | $380.6K | — | $173.4K | Closed |
| 11 |  Elon Musk # tweets July 23 - July 25, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 15h | 90-11472% 65-8913% +6 more | — | +50.8 pts | $376.8K | — | $91.9K | 15h |
| 12 | Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 3d | 260-27922% 280-29921% +17 more | — | +9.4 pts | $368.6K | — | $379.2K | 3d |
| 13 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62% Flávio Bolsonaro23% +15 more | — | +1.0 pts | $354.5K | — | $9.28M | 70d |
| 14 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | December 3134% September 3023% +2 more | — | — | $283.7K | — | $349.4K | Closed |
| 15 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics· ends 2y | J.D. Vance43% Marco Rubio28% +40 more | — | +0.1 pts | $265.1K | — | $55.52M | 2y |
| 16 | Iowa Senate winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Ashley Hinson60% Josh Turek41% | — | -4.0 pts | $258.2K | $511.5K | — | 1y |
| 17 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | June 30, 202739% December 3128% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $221.0K | — | $247.6K | 158d |
| 18 | Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Abdul El-Sayed65% Haley Stevens37% +7 more | — | -14.0 pts | $196.1K | $430.1K | — | 101d |
| 19 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 340d | June 30, 202717% December 31, 20268.5% +3 more | — | — | $166.5K | — | $1.32M | 340d |
| 20 |  Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 160d | No68% Yes33% | — | +0.5 pts | $151.1K | — | $70.9K | 160d |
| 21 | Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | 180-19914% 200-21914% +23 more | — | -1.0 pts | $135.0K | — | $289.5K | 6d |
| 22 |  What will Trump say during WHCA Dinner? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | Fake News87% Sleepy66% +17 more | — | +2.0 pts | $131.0K | — | $30.3K | Closed |
| 23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 36d | No90% Yes11% | — | — | $123.9K | — | $370.8K | 36d |
| 24 |  Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | August 1519% July 317.5% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $105.3K | — | $303.6K | 6d |
| 25 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics· ends 278d | Marine Le Pen31% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | -0.6 pts | $98.6K | — | $11.82M | 278d |
| 26 |  Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 9d | Abdul El-Sayed64% Haley Stevens37% +7 more | — | -15.5 pts | $95.3K | — | $315.4K | 9d |
| 27 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No91% Yes9.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $93.7K | — | $813.8K | 158d |
| 28 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 37d | August 3143% August 1530% +2 more | — | -3.5 pts | $90.2K | — | $192.4K | 37d |
| 29 |  Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? PolymarketPolitics· ends 161d | No55% Yes46% | — | +6.0 pts | $81.2K | — | $69.1K | 161d |
| 30 |  Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | December 31, 202689% September 30, 202673% +2 more | — | -0.1 pts | $72.0K | — | $334.3K | Closed |
| 31 | Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026? KalshiPolitics· ends 7d | Troy Jackson98% No one1.0% +19 more | — | -1.0 pts | $71.5K | $119.2K | — | 7d |
| 32 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics· ends 56d | United Russia (ER)56% New People (NL)33% +5 more | — | — | $65.6K | — | $1.49M | 56d |
| 33 | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | Gavin Newsom18% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16% +44 more | — | +1.0 pts | $59.7K | $901.2K | — | 2y |
| 34 |  Who will Trump meet with in July? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | Benjamin Netanyahu91% Elon Musk10% +6 more | — | +62.4 pts | $53.1K | — | $113.8K | 6d |
| 35 | Elon Musk # tweets July 25 - July 27, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 2d | 40-6445% 65-8926% +8 more | — | — | $51.0K | — | $102.8K | 2d |
| 36 |  Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Gadi Eizenkot49% Benjamin Netanyahu38% +16 more | — | -0.3 pts | $49.5K | — | $2.12M | 158d |
| 37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Yes52% No49% | — | -1.0 pts | $44.5K | — | $271.5K | 158d |
| 38 |  Venezuela leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | Nicolás Maduro83% Delcy Rodríguez9.0% +14 more | — | +1.7 pts | $43.5K | — | $1.98M | 158d |
| 39 |  Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | August 3139% August 1539% +1 more | — | +6.5 pts | $41.4K | — | $96.0K | 6d |
| 40 | Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 67d | No Meeting by September 3034% Switzerland25% +17 more | — | +7.1 pts | $39.7K | — | $603.4K | 67d |
| 41 |  US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No91% Yes9.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $38.1K | — | $17.8K | 158d |
| 42 | Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics· ends 52d | 25 bps increase54% No change41% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $37.1K | — | $567.1K | 52d |
| 43 | South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Darline Graham69% Ralph Norman18% +9 more | — | -2.0 pts | $34.7K | $163.7K | — | 1y |
| 44 | Texas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Ken Paxton57% James Talarico44% | — | -1.0 pts | $31.8K | $61.4K | — | 1y |
| 45 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes3.9% | — | — | $30.3K | — | $586.4K | 158d |
| 46 |  Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3178% July 316.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $29.9K | — | $13.8K | 158d |
| 47 | When will Trump and Netanyahu meet? KalshiPolitics· ends 7d | Before Aug 1, 202693% No7.0% | — | +64.0 pts | $29.7K | $31.9K | — | 7d |
| 48 |  What will Trump say during his Announcement on American Nuclear Innovation? PolymarketPolitics· ends Closed | No100% Yes0.2% | — | — | $28.9K | — | $291 | Closed |
| 49 |  Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3187% September 3084% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $26.2K | — | $87.1K | 158d |
| 50 |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3137% October 3123% +1 more | — | — | $26.2K | — | $235.6K | 158d |
| 51 |  US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | August 3125% July 316.5% +1 more | — | -1.0 pts | $24.3K | — | $98.3K | 6d |
| 52 |  South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 16d | Darline Graham Nordone70% Ralph Norman21% +12 more | — | -1.2 pts | $24.3K | — | $394.8K | 16d |
| 53 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics· ends 70d | Flávio Bolsonaro74% Renan Santos11% +15 more | — | -1.0 pts | $21.6K | — | $788.4K | 70d |
| 54 |  Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3114% October 316.5% +2 more | — | — | $21.5K | — | $254.9K | 158d |
| 55 | Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 7d | 800-83931% 760-79924% +49 more | — | +9.7 pts | $21.4K | — | $366.2K | 7d |
| 56 | Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | Todd Blanche88% Lee Zeldin4.0% +20 more | — | +1.0 pts | $20.4K | $42.8K | — | 2y |
| 57 |  US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3114% September 306.5% +1 more | — | — | $19.7K | — | $153.9K | 158d |
| 58 |  CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual) PolymarketPolitics· ends 101d | Sydney Kamlager-Dove94% Samantha Mota2.9% | — | +4.7 pts | $19.6K | — | $55.2K | 101d |
| 59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? PolymarketPolitics· ends 66d | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.3 pts | $19.5K | — | $285.6K | 66d |
| 60 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 100d | Republican Party56% Democratic Party44% | — | — | $19.1K | — | $615.0K | 100d |
| 61 | Florida Republican Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Byron Donalds97% James Fishback2.7% +7 more | — | -0.4 pts | $18.3K | $283.1K | — | 101d |
| 62 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.7 pts | $17.8K | — | $22.2K | 158d |
| 63 | Will the SAVE Act become law? KalshiPolitics· ends 163d | Before Jan 4, 20276.4% No94% | — | -1.2 pts | $16.8K | $262.6K | — | 163d |
| 64 | Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Francesca Hong79% David Crowley13% +9 more | — | — | $16.4K | $33.6K | — | 101d |
| 65 |  Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote % PolymarketPolitics· ends 340d | Binface 10–20%46% Binface <10%28% +3 more | — | +15.0 pts | $14.0K | — | $129.6K | 340d |
| 66 | Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 9d | Haley Stevens96% Abdul El-Sayed3.6% | — | +27.0 pts | $13.7K | — | $36.5K | 9d |
| 67 |  Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | No100% Yes0.1% | — | -0.9 pts | $13.3K | — | $23.3K | 6d |
| 68 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics· ends 1y | No89% Yes12% | — | -1.0 pts | $13.2K | — | $227.0K | 1y |
| 69 |  Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics· ends 23d | Byron Donalds97% James Fishback2.8% +5 more | — | +0.7 pts | $12.6K | — | $335.0K | 23d |
| 70 |  Trump out as President by July 31? PolymarketPolitics· ends 6d | No100% Yes0.4% | — | — | $12.1K | — | $320.3K | 6d |
| 71 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics· ends 66d | No98% Yes1.7% | — | +0.1 pts | $12.0K | — | $107.2K | 66d |
| 72 |  Andrew Tate released from custody by...? PolymarketPolitics· ends 158d | December 3122% July 312.9% | — | -5.0 pts | $12.0K | — | $32.9K | 158d |
| 73 | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 3y | J.D. Vance17% Marco Rubio17% +28 more | — | — | $11.5K | $252.5K | — | 3y |
| 74 | Jon Ossoff for Senate Total Receipts (Q3) KalshiPolitics· ends 83d | Above $20M95% No5.0% | — | +26.0 pts | $11.1K | $14.6K | — | 83d |
| 75 | Maine Senate winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Democratic party65% Republican party37% | — | — | $11.0K | $26.1K | — | 1y |
| 76 | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26) KalshiPolitics· ends 3d | Above 2097% No3.0% | — | +2.0 pts | $10.3K | $18.6K | — | 3d |
| 77 | Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | At least 20%94% No6.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $10.1K | $15.6K | — | 1y |
| 78 | 2028 Republican presidential nominee KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | J.D. Vance40% Marco Rubio31% +36 more | — | +1.0 pts | $8.1K | $684.8K | — | 2y |
| 79 | Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess? KalshiPolitics· ends 14d | Before Aug 8, 202640% No60% | — | -4.0 pts | $8.0K | $19.9K | — | 14d |
| 80 | Michigan Senate winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Abdul El-Sayed51% Mike Rogers32% +2 more | — | -5.0 pts | $6.5K | $20.1K | — | 1y |
| 81 | Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? KalshiPolitics· ends 160d | Kash Patel33% No67% | — | — | $6.5K | $13.5K | — | 160d |
| 82 | How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026? KalshiPolitics· ends 7d | 096% 13.0% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $6.1K | $21.0K | — | 7d |
| 83 | Georgia Governor winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Keisha Lance Bottoms60% Rick Jackson41% | — | +3.0 pts | $6.1K | $13.6K | — | 1y |
| 84 | Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | At least 1%42% No58% | — | -4.0 pts | $6.0K | $20.2K | — | 1y |
| 85 | Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary? KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | South Carolina97% Michigan6.7% +10 more | — | +76.9 pts | $5.7K | $15.9K | — | 2y |
| 86 | Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3) KalshiPolitics· ends 83d | Above $25M97% No3.0% | — | +40.0 pts | $5.6K | $6.9K | — | 83d |
| 87 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? KalshiPolitics· ends 191d | Republican Party57% Democratic Party44% | — | — | $5.6K | $10.0K | — | 191d |
| 88 | Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Before election day 202615% No85% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.8K | $32.2K | — | 101d |
| 89 | How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (7/19 - 7/25) KalshiPolitics· ends 14d | Above 199% No1.0% | — | +45.0 pts | $4.0K | $6.0K | — | 14d |
| 90 | Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | Before August 1, 20260.1% No100% | — | — | $3.6K | $47.5K | — | 2y |
| 91 | Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Ed Markey73% Seth Moulton27% +2 more | — | — | $3.6K | $6.3K | — | 101d |
| 92 | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? KalshiPolitics· ends 191d | D-House, D-Senate43% D-House, R-Senate39% +2 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.4K | $17.8K | — | 191d |
| 93 | Guam Governor winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Josh Tenorio37% Therese Terlaje33% +3 more | — | +3.0 pts | $3.2K | $28.2K | — | 1y |
| 94 | Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Lisa Demuth52% Mike Lindell48% +6 more | — | +7.0 pts | $2.8K | $6.7K | — | 101d |
| 95 | North Carolina Senate winner? KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Roy Cooper91% Michael Whatley9.0% | — | +0.3 pts | $2.8K | $8.1K | — | 1y |
| 96 | Who will visit the White House in 2026? KalshiPolitics· ends 160d | Eric Adams9.3% No91% | — | — | $2.7K | $3.5K | — | 160d |
| 97 | California Governor winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics· ends 1y | Xavier Becerra95% Steve Hilton4.8% | — | — | $2.6K | $46.5K | — | 1y |
| 98 | US gas prices on Election Day KalshiPolitics· ends 101d | Above 2.5094% No6.0% | — | — | $2.3K | $4.5K | — | 101d |
| 99 | Will President Trump be impeached during his term? KalshiPolitics· ends 2y | Before Jan 20, 202962% No38% | — | -1.0 pts | $2.3K | $3.8K | — | 2y |
| 100 | How many states will Trump visit in Jul 2026? KalshiPolitics· ends 7d | 1075% 917% +3 more | — | +19.0 pts | $2.3K | $6.9K | — | 7d |