Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political outcomes across venues. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Gavin Newsom17% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16% +51 more | — | +2.2 pts | $1.30B | $361.2K | — | $74.86M | 2y |
| 2 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance21% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13% +52 more | — | +0.5 pts | $718.53M | $172.9K | — | $59.88M | 2y |
| 3 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance44% Marco Rubio15% +41 more | — | +0.1 pts | $716.12M | $254.9K | — | $50.82M | 2y |
| 4 | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee KalshiPolitics | Jon Ossoff16% Gavin Newsom14% +50 more | — | — | $246.32M | $15.4K | $458.9K | — | 2y |
| 5 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro80% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21% | — | +2.2 pts | $194.08M | $1.75M | — | $1.43M | 1d |
| 6 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen46% Édouard Philippe17% +43 more | — | -0.1 pts | $155.80M | $224.4K | — | $19.68M | 176d |
| 7 | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? KalshiPolitics | J.D. Vance21% Gavin Newsom13% +32 more | — | — | $76.58M | $21.5K | $599.3K | — | 3y |
| 8 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes18% | — | +1.0 pts | $75.14M | $89.1K | — | $279.6K | 68d |
| 9 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 314.5% October 310.4% | — | +0.3 pts | $74.69M | $165.9K | — | $762.6K | 68d |
| 10 | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? KalshiPolitics | Democrats sweep67% D-House, R-Senate24% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $53.38M | $282.6K | $1.81M | — | 100d |
| 11 |  Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot52% Benjamin Netanyahu28% +17 more | — | +2.5 pts | $51.95M | $501.3K | — | $4.07M | 3d |
| 12 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes2.3% | — | +0.1 pts | $44.73M | $56.0K | — | $414.5K | 68d |
| 13 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | March 3157% December 3134% +2 more | — | -3.0 pts | $42.38M | $191.3K | — | $344.4K | 68d |
| 14 |  California Governor Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Xavier Becerra97% Steve Hilton3.1% +21 more | — | — | $42.29M | $74.7K | — | $7.30M | 10d |
| 15 | Texas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | James Talarico64% Ken Paxton37% | — | -3.0 pts | $39.29M | $1.10M | $2.62M | — | 1y |
| 16 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | October 2498% October 2791% +4 more | — | +5.3 pts | $38.77M | $265.3K | — | $310.8K | 68d |
| 17 |  Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms PolymarketPolitics | Democrats Sweep67% R Senate, D House25% +3 more | — | -2.0 pts | $35.47M | $5.00M | — | $14.62M | 10d |
| 18 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202711% December 31, 20262.1% | — | +1.0 pts | $30.39M | $227.7K | — | $825.1K | 249d |
| 19 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202726% December 3114% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $27.99M | $65.3K | — | $320.1K | 249d |
| 20 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.5% | — | — | $27.92M | $146.6K | — | $510.3K | 68d |
| 21 |  Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $24.44M | $37.9K | — | $276.2K | 68d |
| 22 |  US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | October 2299% October 2498% +7 more | — | +1.3 pts | $24.04M | $1.30M | — | $670.6K | 7d |
| 23 | California Governor winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics | Xavier Becerra97% Steve Hilton3.0% | — | +0.1 pts | $21.64M | $171.2K | $625.4K | — | 1y |
| 24 |  Which party will win the House in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party92% Republican Party8.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $21.15M | $592.1K | — | $7.72M | 10d |
| 25 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? KalshiPolitics | Democratic Party67% Republican Party35% | — | -2.0 pts | $17.99M | $304.3K | $673.6K | — | 100d |
| 26 | Maine Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Troy Jackson64% Susan Collins37% | — | -1.0 pts | $10.42M | $131.4K | $258.7K | — | 1y |
| 27 |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202772% November 30, 202769% +13 more | — | — | $9.64M | $170.4K | — | $1.23M | 249d |
| 28 | Michigan Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed69% Mike Rogers32% | — | — | $9.01M | $108.4K | $254.7K | — | 1y |
| 29 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party68% Republican Party33% | — | -1.0 pts | $8.85M | $895.5K | — | $4.73M | 10d |
| 30 | Ohio Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Sherrod Brown69% Jon Husted32% | — | -1.0 pts | $8.27M | $38.2K | $87.1K | — | 1y |
| 31 | Above 5239% 5223% +8 more | — | +1.0 pts | $6.80M | $22.5K | $263.1K | — | 100d | |
| 32 |  Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202830% December 31, 202716% +2 more | — | — | $6.33M | $86.7K | — | $534.0K | 2y |
| 33 | Iowa Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ashley Hinson59% Josh Turek42% | — | +1.0 pts | $5.91M | $38.4K | $79.2K | — | 1y |
| 34 |  Texas Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | James Talarico (D)64% Ken Paxton (R)37% | — | -3.0 pts | $5.89M | $269.0K | — | $783.0K | 10d |
| 35 | Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40% Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%34% +6 more | — | -1.5 pts | $5.52M | $690.8K | — | $758.6K | 1d |
| 36 | South Carolina Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Darline Graham80% Annie Andrews21% | — | -2.0 pts | $4.92M | $319.2K | $537.6K | — | 1y |
| 37 | Texas Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Greg Abbott73% Gina Hinojosa27% | — | +5.0 pts | $4.65M | $362.0K | $696.2K | — | 1y |
| 38 | Kansas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Roger Marshall61% Adam Hamilton40% | — | -1.0 pts | $4.48M | $79.7K | $162.0K | — | 1y |
| 39 | Ohio Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Amy Acton83% Vivek Ramaswamy18% | — | — | $4.32M | $130.0K | $321.6K | — | 1y |
| 40 | Florida Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Byron Donalds82% David Jolly20% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.18M | $100.3K | $192.7K | — | 1y |
| 41 | 4822% 4714% +13 more | — | +2.0 pts | $3.96M | $22.5K | $301.3K | — | 100d | |
| 42 |  Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia78% Student List – Students Win22% +8 more | — | +6.5 pts | $3.88M | $442.8K | — | $1.56M | 1d |
| 43 | North Carolina Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Roy Cooper96% Michael Whatley3.9% | — | -0.1 pts | $3.72M | $14.9K | $58.1K | — | 1y |
| 44 | Minnesota Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Peggy Flanagan86% Michele Tafoya16% | — | -2.0 pts | $3.60M | $44.2K | $133.1K | — | 1y |
| 45 |  Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? PolymarketPolitics | ≤4743% 4818% +9 more | — | -2.0 pts | $3.40M | $72.1K | — | $2.76M | 10d |
| 46 | Nebraska Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Pete Ricketts77% Dan Osborn24% +1 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.25M | $12.8K | $79.0K | — | 1y |
| 47 | Democrats, 8 to 10%26% Democrats, 10 to 12%24% +8 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.22M | $15.1K | $151.0K | — | 1y | |
| 48 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | -0.3 pts | $3.18M | $119.1K | — | $190.0K | 7d |
| 49 | Alaska Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Democratic party76% Republican party25% | — | — | $3.05M | $12.6K | $44.6K | — | 1y |
| 50 | Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? KalshiPolitics | Anna Kelly27% Scott Jennings7.0% +60 more | — | +8.0 pts | $2.98M | $20.2K | $205.8K | — | 2y |
| 51 |  Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? PolymarketPolitics | No Hormuz Agreement100% Hormuz Agreement; R Senate0.1% +1 more | — | +1.4 pts | $2.53M | $100.1K | — | $153.6K | 10d |
| 52 | Maine-Texas Senate Combo KalshiPolitics | James Talarico and Troy Jackson53% Ken Paxton and Susan Collins28% +4 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.51M | $38.1K | $122.0K | — | 1y |
| 53 | Georgia Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Keisha Lance Bottoms60% Rick Jackson42% | — | -1.0 pts | $2.44M | $28.6K | $64.2K | — | 1y |
| 54 |  Michigan Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed (D)72% Mike Rogers (R)29% | — | — | $2.32M | $93.1K | — | $532.2K | 10d |
| 55 | Blue wave in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?85% No15% | — | +2.0 pts | $2.27M | $79.3K | $93.3K | — | 100d |
| 56 | Georgia Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Jon Ossoff96% Mike Collins4.8% | — | +0.6 pts | $2.27M | $11.7K | $52.6K | — | 1y |
| 57 |  Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3182% November 3076% +1 more | — | +9.5 pts | $2.03M | $105.9K | — | $108.4K | 68d |
| 58 | Next Prime Minister of Serbia? PolymarketPolitics | Aleksandar Vučić71% Ilija Srdanović13% +10 more | — | -1.3 pts | $2.02M | $227.5K | — | $832.0K | 1d |
| 59 | Massachusetts Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Maura Healey96% Mike Minogue4.3% | — | +0.2 pts | $1.90M | $34.8K | $177.8K | — | 1y |
| 60 | Florida Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ashley Moody90% Angie Nixon10% | — | -0.4 pts | $1.84M | $12.0K | $40.5K | — | 1y |
| 61 |  Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | Jared Kushner35% Majid Takht-Ravanchi35% +21 more | — | — | $1.81M | $42.5K | — | $445.5K | 68d |
| 62 |  Taipei Mayor Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Chiang Wan-an64% Puma Shen37% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $1.80M | $29.5K | — | $390.5K | 35d |
| 63 |  Israeli Legislative Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Yashar70% Likud31% +4 more | — | -1.0 pts | $1.79M | $83.9K | — | $1.12M | 3d |
| 64 |  Next leader out of power before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | None before 202750% Netanyahu - Israel PM28% +20 more | — | +4.0 pts | $1.55M | $63.9K | — | $590.0K | 68d |
| 65 |  Bulgaria Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Iliana Iotova88% Аndrey Gyurov13% +12 more | — | -1.0 pts | $1.51M | $110.6K | — | $1.80M | 1d |
| 66 | Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? PolymarketPolitics | No Hormuz Agreement93% Hormuz Agreement; D Senate5.7% +1 more | — | +4.2 pts | $1.50M | $49.9K | — | $207.8K | 10d |
| 67 |  Kansas Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Roger Marshall (R)62% Adam Hamilton (D)39% | — | -1.0 pts | $1.18M | $51.4K | — | $418.0K | 10d |
| 68 | Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? PolymarketPolitics | Oil ≥ $85; D Senate65% Oil ≥ $85; R Senate27% +2 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.17M | $79.3K | — | $1.27M | 10d |
| 69 | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? KalshiPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot48% Benjamin Netanyahu29% +16 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.11M | $48.9K | $160.2K | — | 1y |
| 70 |  US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? PolymarketPolitics | Yes75% No26% | — | +1.5 pts | $1.11M | $82.6K | — | $49.4K | 10d |
| 71 | Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Iotova 10-20%62% Iotova <10%18% +7 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.08M | $143.8K | — | $799.2K | 1d |
| 72 | Texas Senate margin of victory KalshiPolitics | James Talarico, 1+ pts60% No40% | — | -3.0 pts | $1.07M | $38.4K | $108.3K | — | 1y |
| 73 | Texas Senate margin of victory KalshiPolitics | Ken Paxton, 1+ pts34% No66% | — | +1.0 pts | $1.04M | $23.3K | $110.0K | — | 1y |
| 74 |  Israel Election: Likud # of seats? PolymarketPolitics | 20-2445% <2028% +3 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.02M | $48.1K | — | $421.6K | 3d |
| 75 | Idaho Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Jim Risch96% Todd Achilles4.0% +1 more | — | — | $906.3K | $14.5K | $46.3K | — | 1y |
| 76 |  Ohio Governor Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Amy Acton (D)83% Vivek Ramaswamy (R)18% | — | -1.0 pts | $873.0K | $43.6K | — | $289.6K | 10d |
| 77 | Blue tsunami in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?54% No46% | — | -4.0 pts | $863.7K | $31.0K | $57.4K | — | 100d |
| 78 | Texas Governor Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Greg Abbott (R)74% Gina Hinojosa (D) 27% | — | +3.9 pts | $837.2K | $59.6K | — | $333.5K | 10d |
| 79 | Mississippi Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Cindy Hyde-Smith90% Scott Colom12% | — | -0.3 pts | $772.4K | $21.0K | $64.1K | — | 1y |
| 80 | Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? PolymarketPolitics | Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67% Oil ≥ $80; R Senate29% +2 more | — | +2.1 pts | $760.2K | $67.0K | — | $1.46M | 10d |
| 81 |  Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? PolymarketPolitics | Yes98% No2.1% | — | -1.1 pts | $747.6K | $44.2K | — | $90.7K | 68d |
| 82 |  Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá PolymarketPolitics | Flavio Bolsonaro66% Lula35% | — | -2.0 pts | $731.8K | $67.8K | — | $284.8K | 1d |
| 83 |  Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 300-31924% 280-29923% +20 more | — | +8.0 pts | $676.4K | $218.8K | — | $246.5K | 3d |
| 84 |  France declares state of emergency by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3114% October 318.5% | — | -4.0 pts | $666.3K | $389.7K | — | $112.1K | 68d |
| 85 |  Toronto Mayoral Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Olivia Chow66% Brad Bradford35% +6 more | — | +12.5 pts | $657.2K | $53.3K | — | $608.1K | 2d |
| 86 | Vermont Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Phil Scott75% Amanda Janoo26% | — | — | $614.2K | $11.8K | $22.7K | — | 1y |
| 87 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.0% | — | +0.3 pts | $598.0K | $57.2K | — | $102.5K | 68d |
| 88 |  US imports Russian diesel by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3186% November 3080% +1 more | — | +10.5 pts | $510.7K | $62.2K | — | $53.9K | 37d |
| 89 |  Idaho Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Jim Risch (R)97% Todd Achilles (I)2.9% +1 more | — | +0.1 pts | $409.9K | $28.9K | — | $187.7K | 10d |
| 90 | Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 65-8984% 90-11414% +7 more | — | +34.5 pts | $398.9K | $292.3K | — | $168.5K | 10h |
| 91 |  Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? PolymarketPolitics | Thom Tillis11% Raphael Warnock8.6% +13 more | — | +1.0 pts | $359.0K | $40.5K | — | $199.8K | 69d |
| 92 |  Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? PolymarketPolitics | No68% Yes33% | — | -4.5 pts | $310.4K | $44.9K | — | $31.1K | 68d |
| 93 | Georgia Senate margin of victory KalshiPolitics | Ossoff, 2+ pts92% No8.5% | — | -1.5 pts | $231.9K | $40.2K | $53.1K | — | 1y |
| 94 |  Next Press Secretary? PolymarketPolitics | Anna Kelly26% Scott Jennings6.0% +29 more | — | +7.5 pts | $229.9K | $34.5K | — | $464.5K | 1y |
| 95 | Kansas Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Ty Masterson74% Cindy Holscher26% | — | -3.0 pts | $217.4K | $25.4K | $35.5K | — | 1y |
| 96 | North Carolina Senate margin of victory KalshiPolitics | Cooper, 1+ pts96% No3.7% | — | — | $187.9K | $13.9K | $29.0K | — | 1y |
| 97 |  Spain General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PP76% PSOE25% +3 more | — | -9.0 pts | $164.5K | $33.4K | — | $280.8K | 36d |
| 98 |  Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará PolymarketPolitics | Lula86% Flavio Bolsonaro12% | — | -3.0 pts | $154.8K | $29.1K | — | $149.6K | 1d |
| 99 | Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 260-27914% 280-29914% +27 more | — | +1.5 pts | $144.2K | $75.2K | — | $188.7K | 6d |
| 100 | Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%27% Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%25% +12 more | — | +0.5 pts | $61.6K | $41.8K | — | $285.0K | 1d |