Economics Prediction Markets
Fed decisions, inflation, rates and macro releases. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change94% 25 bps increase6.5% +3 more | — | — | $61.27M | $3.89M | — | $6.62M | 5d |
| 2 |  How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 0 (0 bps)96% 1 (25 bps)1.4% +11 more | — | -0.3 pts | $54.74M | $56.0K | — | $3.98M | 69d |
| 3 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No89% Yes12% | — | — | $15.44M | $14.3K | — | $635.3K | 69d |
| 4 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA59% Apple39% +6 more | — | -5.0 pts | $8.90M | $69.8K | — | $1.23M | 69d |
| 5 | Fed Decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase74% No change22% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $4.49M | $52.4K | — | $902.0K | 47d |
| 6 |  Fed rate cut by...? PolymarketEconomics | July 2027 Meeting50% June 2027 Meeting31% +5 more | — | -1.0 pts | $3.81M | $1.8K | — | $176.7K | 1y |
| 7 | Recession this year? KalshiEconomics | Starts4.0% No96% | — | — | $3.72M | $106 | $2.7K | — | 99d |
| 8 |  US recession by end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | No93% Yes7.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $2.34M | $3.8K | — | $81.0K | 67d |
| 9 |  What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | ↑ 4.25%75% ↑ 4.5%15% +18 more | — | +2.9 pts | $1.89M | $1.9K | — | $481.2K | 68d |
| 10 |  How high will inflation get in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Above 4.5%14% Above 5%8.5% +3 more | — | — | $1.50M | $2.5K | — | $79.6K | 100d |
| 11 |  How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 5.3%41% 5.4%24% +3 more | — | -2.0 pts | $1.10M | $28.6K | — | $57.4K | 69d |
| 12 |  Another Fed rate hike in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Yes74% No27% | — | -3.0 pts | $1.03M | $39.2K | — | $236.7K | 47d |
| 13 | Fed Decision in January? PolymarketEconomics | No change68% 25 bps increase28% +3 more | — | — | $893.0K | $5.2K | — | $567.0K | 96d |
| 14 | How high will unemployment get in 2026? KalshiEconomics | Above 4.5%12% No88% | — | -3.0 pts | $810.7K | $32 | $823 | — | 76d |
| 15 | Largest Company end of October 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA55% Apple44% +7 more | — | -13.3 pts | $795.7K | $59.4K | — | $401.9K | 8d |
| 16 | Recession in 2027? KalshiEconomics | Yes22% No78% | — | +2.0 pts | $732.1K | $1.4K | $6.4K | — | 1y |
| 17 |  ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 PolymarketEconomics | No change99% 25 bps increase1.2% +3 more | — | +1.7 pts | $655.9K | $5.5K | — | $74.1K | 6d |
| 18 |  How high will US unemployment go in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 5.0%6.0% 10.0%2.1% +3 more | — | +1.9 pts | $579.7K | $6.9K | — | $32.8K | 159d |
| 19 | How high will inflation get this year? KalshiEconomics | At least 4.5%23% No77% | — | — | $568.0K | $2 | $43 | — | 113d |
| 20 |  Bank of Canada Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase81% No Change19% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $460.3K | $8.6K | — | $70.9K | 3d |
| 21 |  Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) PolymarketEconomics | Hike–Pause–Hike72% Hike–Pause–Pause22% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $439.5K | $31.6K | — | $303.6K | 46d |
| 22 |  How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | Below 4.9%82% Below 4.8%62% +15 more | — | — | $432.3K | $2.2K | — | $36.2K | 69d |
| 23 | US real GDP growth in 2026? KalshiEconomics | 2.1% to 2.5%66% 1.6% to 2.0%21% +12 more | — | +16.0 pts | $428.6K | $188 | $3.2K | — | 127d |
| 24 | CPI YoY in December KalshiEconomics | Above 3.0%96% No4.0% | — | — | $338.5K | $920 | $2.6K | — | 81d |
| 25 | Fed decision in Jan 2027? KalshiEconomics | Fed maintains rate64% Hike 25bps31% +3 more | — | +4.0 pts | $286.7K | $76 | $229 | — | 95d |
| 26 |  Bank of Japan Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change97% 25 bps increase2.7% +3 more | — | -0.9 pts | $268.9K | $3.6K | — | $50.8K | 5d |
| 27 | How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 5.40%64% 5.50%49% +5 more | — | -4.0 pts | $263.0K | $2.8K | — | $13.6K | 67d |
| 28 | How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.70%76% Below 4.65%67% +11 more | — | +7.0 pts | $211.7K | $49.4K | — | $84.4K | 67d |
| 29 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase67% No change32% +3 more | — | +0.6 pts | $206.1K | $2.1K | — | $31.5K | 11d |
| 30 | Core CPI YoY in December KalshiEconomics | Above 2.1%98% No2.0% | — | — | $182.2K | $1.2K | $2.9K | — | 81d |
| 31 | How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | Below 5.25%66% Below 5.20%57% +8 more | — | -14.5 pts | $181.9K | $28.6K | — | $50.3K | 67d |
| 32 | Will there be a Trump economic boom? KalshiEconomics | Above 5%30% No70% | — | -6.1 pts | $181.5K | $40 | $133 | — | 2y |
| 33 | Fed decision in Jul 2027? KalshiEconomics | Fed maintains rate73% Hike 25bps15% +3 more | — | -4.0 pts | $180.2K | $5 | $7 | — | 277d |
| 34 | Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? KalshiEconomics | Above 0.00%99% No1.0% | — | — | $175.5K | $115 | $153 | — | 186d |
| 35 | Fed decision in Oct 2027? KalshiEconomics | Fed maintains rate79% Cut 25bps7.0% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $165.0K | $10 | $13 | — | 1y |
| 36 | Next Fed rate hike? KalshiEconomics | Before 202780% No20% | — | +2.0 pts | $153.0K | $3.4K | $4.3K | — | 2y |
| 37 | How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 4.80%100% 4.90%74% +5 more | — | +20.1 pts | $152.5K | $12.6K | — | $20.3K | 67d |
| 38 |  USD x Iranian rials End of December? PolymarketEconomics | 2.5 - 3.0M32% 3.0 - 3.5M25% +4 more | — | -2.0 pts | $133.1K | $1.2K | — | $31.6K | 68d |
| 39 | Fed funds rate at end of 2027 KalshiEconomics | Above 1.00%98% No2.0% | — | — | $128.5K | $1.3K | $1.6K | — | 1y |
| 40 |  US economic state at the end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)86% Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)11% +2 more | — | +9.5 pts | $116.2K | $6.0K | — | $43.2K | 100d |
| 41 |  Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase89% No change11% +3 more | — | +6.5 pts | $107.1K | $1.5K | — | $16.4K | 4d |
| 42 |  Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | ↑ 7.50%72% ↓ 6.50%30% +5 more | — | -3.0 pts | $104.4K | $2.5K | — | $2.4K | 83d |
| 43 |  Bank of Mexico Decision in November? PolymarketEconomics | No change79% 25 bps decrease20% +3 more | — | +4.5 pts | $98.7K | $6.6K | — | $14.5K | 12d |
| 44 | 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Microsoft43% Alphabet28% +7 more | — | — | $97.9K | $1.6K | — | $132.2K | 69d |
| 45 | 2nd Largest Company end of October 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Apple56% NVIDIA44% +7 more | — | -13.5 pts | $95.8K | $12.9K | — | $137.2K | 8d |
| 46 |  2026 World GDP Growth PolymarketEconomics | 3.1%59% 3.2%15% +7 more | — | -0.5 pts | $84.6K | $1.3K | — | $13.5K | 189d |
| 47 |  Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 2.0-2.4%67% ≤1.9%29% +4 more | — | -1.9 pts | $79.8K | $1.7K | — | $10.2K | 159d |
| 48 |  Bank of Brazil decision in November? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps decrease82% No Change16% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $75.0K | $1.4K | — | $18.6K | 11d |
| 49 |  Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.8-1.1%68% 1.2-1.5%20% +5 more | — | +4.0 pts | $74.6K | $2.8K | — | $15.1K | 6d |
| 50 | USD x Iranian rials End of October? PolymarketEconomics | 2.8M+37% 2.7-2.8M33% +5 more | — | +1.5 pts | $71.9K | $6.0K | — | $31.1K | 8d |
| 51 | Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) PolymarketEconomics | Pause-Hike-Pause59% Pause-Hike-Hike18% +7 more | — | -0.5 pts | $71.2K | $1.6K | — | $131.4K | 95d |
| 52 |  Swiss National Bank decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | No Change80% 25 bps increase19% +3 more | — | +1.1 pts | $65.4K | $2.0K | — | $23.6K | 46d |
| 53 |  Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 3.0-3.5%43% 2.0-2.5%23% +6 more | — | -0.7 pts | $63.4K | $5.9K | — | $7.3K | 6d |
| 54 |  Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.0% | — | -7.0 pts | $59.3K | $2.3K | — | $319 | 69d |
| 55 | No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? PolymarketEconomics | No change98% Hike 25 bps1.8% | — | +0.4 pts | $54.9K | $1.3K | — | $34.2K | 3d |
| 56 |  Central Bank of Colombia decision in October PolymarketEconomics | No change63% 25 bps increase31% +3 more | — | +7.0 pts | $52.0K | $6.6K | — | $4.1K | 5d |
| 57 |  EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 30M+96% 31M+95% +6 more | — | — | $49.9K | $1.6K | — | $141.8K | 8d |
| 58 |  Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31? PolymarketEconomics | $900B-$1.00T57% $800-$900B28% +5 more | — | +14.9 pts | $39.9K | $1.2K | — | $7.8K | 8d |
| 59 | ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase76% No change21% +3 more | — | -5.0 pts | $37.9K | $1.1K | — | $25.3K | 54d |
| 60 |  Core PCE MoM - September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.3%57% 0.4%23% +5 more | — | -6.0 pts | $36.7K | $11.4K | — | $12.6K | 5d |
| 61 | How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.95%60% Below 4.90%34% +1 more | — | -3.5 pts | $33.4K | $1.8K | — | $1.2K | 8d |
| 62 |  October Inflation China - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 0.7% to 0.8%41% 0.9% to 1.0%37% +3 more | — | +1.5 pts | $25.1K | $3.7K | — | $4.7K | 16d |
| 63 | How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 4.75%79% 4.80%68% +9 more | — | +5.0 pts | $23.9K | $2.2K | — | $8.6K | 69d |
| 64 | How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.60%75% Below 4.50%50% +6 more | — | +1.0 pts | $23.2K | $2.8K | — | $2.5K | 69d |
| 65 |  Bank of Russia decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | No change63% 25 bps decrease22% +3 more | — | +2.5 pts | $22.5K | $6.0K | — | $16.5K | 55d |
| 66 | October Inflation US - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 3.7%89% 3.8%6.8% +10 more | — | +2.5 pts | $19.7K | $1.6K | — | $52.1K | 18d |
| 67 | Bank of Japan Decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase72% No change25% +3 more | — | -2.5 pts | $19.3K | $1.2K | — | $11.9K | 54d |
| 68 |  What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31? PolymarketEconomics | $809K - $830K35% $830K - $851K32% +5 more | — | +6.5 pts | $19.0K | $3.3K | — | $2.8K | 79d |
| 69 | Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 KalshiEconomics | Above 3.50%99% No1.0% | — | — | $16.2K | $2.0K | $8.7K | — | 72d |
| 70 |  Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...? PolymarketEconomics | November 3041% October 312.5% | — | -49.5 pts | $15.6K | $6.5K | — | $1.9K | 38d |
| 71 |  Bank of England decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | No change59% 25 bps increase33% +3 more | — | +4.5 pts | $14.7K | $2.3K | — | $5.5K | 54d |
| 72 | Central Bank of Colombia decision in December PolymarketEconomics | No change69% 50+ bps increase14% +3 more | — | -2.0 pts | $14.1K | $2.2K | — | $2.2K | 54d |
| 73 | Core CPI YoY - October 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 2.6%91% 3.0%6.6% +8 more | — | +13.0 pts | $8.6K | $1.1K | — | $8.9K | 18d |
| 74 | Yes29% No71% | — | — | $7.0K | M$1.4K | — | $52 | 1y | |
| 75 | Fed funds rate at end of 2036 KalshiEconomics | Above 1.00%90% No10.0% | — | +22.0 pts | $6.5K | $2.4K | $3.9K | — | 10y |
| 76 |  Gas prices on October 24? PolymarketEconomics | $4.2900-4.299994% $4.3000-4.30994.0% +4 more | — | — | $2.1K | $2.1K | — | $13.2K | 10h |
| 77 |  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 46.0 to 48.962% 43.0 to 45.938% +5 more | — | — | $561 | $1.5K | — | $814 | 27d |
| 78 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027? ManifoldEconomics | Yes51% No49% | — | — | $35 | M$468 | — | $10 | 1y |
| 79 | Jerome Powell Announced Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | Yes8.0% No7.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 80 | Fed Rate Cut in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Yes7.0% No6.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 81 | Fed Decision in October Polymarket USEconomics | No Change92% 25 bps Increase7.0% +2 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5d |
| 82 | US GDP Growth in Q3 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Above 1.0%99% Above 0.0%98% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6d |
| 83 | Lisa Cook Officially Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | No11% Yes10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 84 | US GDP Growth in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Above 1.0%0.0% Above 1.4%0.0% +5 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98d |
| 85 | Fed Rate Cut Greater Than 25bps? Polymarket USEconomics | No4.0% Yes3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 86 | Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | No75% Yes74% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 69d |
| 87 | Fed Decision in December Polymarket USEconomics | 25 bps Increase70% No Change25% +3 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 47d |
| 88 | Fed Funds Rate at the End of 2027? Polymarket USEconomics | 5.25% Or Above98% 3.50% Or Above7.0% +7 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1y |
| 89 | October Unemployment Rate Polymarket USEconomics | Above 3.8%98% Above 3.9%97% +7 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14d |
| 90 | Jobs Numbers in October 2026 Polymarket USEconomics | Above -100,00097% Above -50,00096% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14d |
| 91 | How High Will Unemployment Get by December? Polymarket USEconomics | 4.4%28% 4.6%14% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 77d |
| 92 | How Low Will Unemployment Get by December? Polymarket USEconomics | 4.0%51% 3.8%13% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 77d |
| 93 | Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | No15% Yes14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 82d |