Economics Prediction Markets
Fed decisions, inflation, rates and macro releases. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase55% No change46% +3 more | — | +3.0 pts | $104.65M | $1.73M | — | $5.18M | 7d |
| 2 |  How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 0 (0 bps)93% 1 (25 bps)5.1% +11 more | — | +0.2 pts | $51.63M | $52.1K | — | $4.16M | 113d |
| 3 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No76% Yes25% | — | — | $10.59M | $41.1K | — | $510.9K | 113d |
| 4 |  Fed rate hike in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Yes71% No30% | — | — | $8.77M | $5.7K | — | $101.8K | 91d |
| 5 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA79% Apple14% +6 more | — | +0.5 pts | $6.94M | $123.7K | — | $1.47M | 113d |
| 6 |  Fed rate cut by...? PolymarketEconomics | December Meeting6.5% October Meeting3.9% +1 more | — | — | $3.43M | $11.4K | — | $455.6K | 121d |
| 7 | Recession this year? KalshiEconomics | Starts5.0% No95% | — | +1.0 pts | $3.41M | $319 | $6.4K | — | 144d |
| 8 |  Fed rate hike by...? PolymarketEconomics | October Meeting64% September Meeting55% | — | +2.5 pts | $2.89M | $14.3K | — | $211.2K | 50d |
| 9 | Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA97% Apple2.5% +7 more | — | +0.1 pts | $1.49M | $40.1K | — | $984.5K | 22d |
| 10 | Fed Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change68% 25 bps increase31% +3 more | — | — | $1.36M | $33.1K | — | $915.0K | 50d |
| 11 | Fed rate cut before 2027? KalshiEconomics | Cuts9.3% No91% | — | +2.7 pts | $1.16M | $4.2K | $45.1K | — | 114d |
| 12 |  Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes1.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $1.08M | $7.0K | — | $33.1K | 113d |
| 13 |  Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) PolymarketEconomics | Other55% Pause–Pause–Pause46% +1 more | — | +3.5 pts | $841.0K | $4.8K | — | $83.3K | 7d |
| 14 | How high will unemployment get in 2026? KalshiEconomics | Above 4.5%16% No84% | — | — | $758.1K | $8 | $136 | — | 121d |
| 15 |  Which CEOs will be out before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | Andy Jassy - Amazon10% Sundar Pichai - Google7.0% +3 more | — | -0.1 pts | $713.5K | $964 | — | $5.4K | 114d |
| 16 |  Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase98% No change1.7% +3 more | — | -0.5 pts | $686.2K | $44.9K | — | $120.0K | 9d |
| 17 | Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? KalshiEconomics | In 20265.1% No95% | — | — | $592.9K | $129 | $2.5K | — | 114d |
| 18 | Fed Decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | No change49% 25 bps increase44% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $560.6K | $543 | — | $403.7K | 92d |
| 19 | Fed decision in Oct 2026? KalshiEconomics | Fed maintains rate68% Hike 25bps27% +3 more | — | — | $557.3K | $1.5K | $12.6K | — | 49d |
| 20 |  ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase100% No change0.4% +3 more | — | -0.1 pts | $494.7K | $37.2K | — | $158.5K | 1d |
| 21 | How high will inflation get this year? KalshiEconomics | At least 4.5%21% No79% | — | -7.1 pts | $471.9K | $69 | $328 | — | 158d |
| 22 | US real GDP growth in 2026? KalshiEconomics | 1.6% to 2.0%35% 2.1% to 2.5%31% +12 more | — | — | $381.8K | — | — | — | 172d |
| 23 | Recession in 2027? KalshiEconomics | Yes22% No78% | — | -1.0 pts | $360.8K | $1.9K | $8.7K | — | 1y |
| 24 |  How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 4.8%100% 5.0%40% +4 more | — | +8.1 pts | $322.6K | $12.7K | — | $26.9K | 113d |
| 25 |  Bank of Russia decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No Change70% Decrease28% +1 more | — | — | $311.1K | $51.7K | — | $111.1K | 3d |
| 26 |  Bank of England decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change97% 25 bps increase2.8% +3 more | — | -0.4 pts | $251.7K | $8.0K | — | $34.1K | 9d |
| 27 |  How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | 3.9%8.3% 3.5%5.1% +6 more | — | -1.6 pts | $246.9K | $4.2K | — | $55.9K | 113d |
| 28 |  Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | No96% Yes3.9% | — | -2.3 pts | $207.6K | $10.5K | — | $15.9K | 114d |
| 29 |  Which companies will the US take a stake in? PolymarketPolitics | Rigetti97% D-Wave94% +18 more | — | +31.6 pts | $183.0K | $3.4K | — | $9.5K | 113d |
| 30 | 3rd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet89% Microsoft7.7% +7 more | — | +2.0 pts | $156.6K | $23.6K | — | $270.9K | 22d |
| 31 |  Bank of Brazil decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps decrease97% No Change1.8% +3 more | — | -0.8 pts | $135.3K | $525 | — | $10.8K | 6d |
| 32 | US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? KalshiEconomics | Above 0.0%96% No4.0% | — | — | $123.5K | $1.4K | $1.9K | — | 51d |
| 33 |  What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | <$446K95% $454K - $462K4.3% +5 more | — | +8.0 pts | $94.7K | $958 | — | $10.3K | 21d |
| 34 | CPI in September KalshiEconomics | Above -0.4%97% No3.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $85.7K | $2.0K | $2.4K | — | 35d |
| 35 | 2nd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Apple90% Alphabet8.5% +7 more | — | -1.0 pts | $85.3K | $4.7K | — | $152.7K | 22d |
| 36 |  August Inflation US - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 3.4%45% 3.3%32% +10 more | — | -1.5 pts | $81.4K | $4.8K | — | $37.3K | 2d |
| 37 | What will the median home value in the US be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | <$419K46% $419K - $426K36% +5 more | — | -5.3 pts | $80.8K | $1.8K | — | $10.0K | 21d |
| 38 | Bank of Japan Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change82% 25 bps increase18% +3 more | — | -1.5 pts | $76.3K | $6.1K | — | $16.5K | 51d |
| 39 |  Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | ↑ 6.75%83% ↓ 6.50%57% +8 more | — | — | $71.7K | $3.1K | — | $19.4K | 113d |
| 40 | Fed Decision in January? PolymarketEconomics | No change61% 25 bps increase24% +3 more | — | — | $67.8K | $5.2K | — | $262.8K | 141d |
| 41 |  Mexico Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 4.00% to 4.49%33% 3.50% to 3.99%32% +6 more | — | +8.0 pts | $66.8K | $657 | — | $5.1K | 121d |
| 42 |  What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $1.153M - $1.169M30% $1.137M - $1.153M24% +5 more | — | -6.9 pts | $62.0K | $3.6K | — | $5.9K | 21d |
| 43 | What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $518K - $524K36% $524K - $530K26% +5 more | — | +26.9 pts | $61.8K | $2.2K | — | $7.1K | 21d |
| 44 |  Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.8-1.1%57% 1.2-1.5%23% +5 more | — | +2.0 pts | $60.7K | $668 | — | $6.6K | 51d |
| 45 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase63% No change35% +3 more | — | +5.5 pts | $58.9K | $3.7K | — | $14.0K | 21d |
| 46 |  Bank of Canada Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No Change89% 25 bps increase9.6% +3 more | — | +0.4 pts | $55.6K | $4.2K | — | $17.5K | 49d |
| 47 |  Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25? PolymarketEconomics | 280M77% 270M36% +3 more | — | -1.3 pts | $40.8K | $2.0K | — | $22.7K | 29d |
| 48 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November PolymarketEconomics | No change67% 25 bps increase32% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $39.2K | $1.2K | — | $5.7K | 56d |
| 49 |  USD x Iranian rials End of September? PolymarketEconomics | 2.2M+86% 2.1-2.2M11% +5 more | — | +5.5 pts | $36.8K | $4.1K | — | $34.8K | 22d |
| 50 |  August Inflation US - Monthly PolymarketEconomics | 0.4%48% 0.3%36% +7 more | — | -0.5 pts | $36.7K | $3.5K | — | $25.9K | 2d |
| 51 | Unemployment in September KalshiEconomics | Above 3.7%95% No5.0% | — | +3.0 pts | $33.9K | $1.6K | $2.1K | — | 23d |
| 52 |  August Inflation China - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 0.7% - 0.8%42% 0.9%+37% +3 more | — | -3.5 pts | $33.4K | $1.9K | — | $5.4K | 1d |
| 53 |  Central Bank of Colombia decision in September PolymarketEconomics | No change66% 50+ bps increase18% +3 more | — | -25.5 pts | $32.1K | $2.4K | — | $5.3K | 21d |
| 54 |  US GDP growth in Q3 2026? PolymarketEconomics | ≥3.0%40% 2.0–2.5%26% +5 more | — | +6.0 pts | $25.0K | $813 | — | $8.2K | 51d |
| 55 | Core CPI YoY - August 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 2.4%48% 2.3%28% +8 more | — | +1.5 pts | $22.9K | $1.1K | — | $7.9K | 2d |
| 56 | Core CPI MoM - August 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.2%54% 0.3%36% +5 more | — | -1.0 pts | $20.3K | $8.8K | — | $11.9K | 2d |
| 57 | 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet53% Apple24% +7 more | — | -7.5 pts | $19.9K | $2.7K | — | $91.4K | 114d |
| 58 |  US defaults on debt by 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No97% Yes3.4% | — | +1.5 pts | $18.1K | $944 | — | $2.2K | 113d |
| 59 | Bank of Brazil decision in November? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps decrease62% No Change36% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $14.2K | $725 | — | $4.2K | 56d |
| 60 | Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) PolymarketEconomics | Pause–Pause–Pause33% Hike–Pause–Pause19% +7 more | — | +7.0 pts | $13.9K | $2.2K | — | $62.7K | 92d |
| 61 |  Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $800-$900B47% $900B-$1.00T22% +5 more | — | +16.5 pts | $11.2K | $1.1K | — | $6.0K | 22d |
| 62 | How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.76%77% Below 4.73%68% +7 more | — | +3.0 pts | $9.3K | $5.0K | — | $7.0K | 21d |
| 63 | How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.50%84% Below 4.45%75% +7 more | — | — | $8.8K | $673 | — | $9.8K | 113d |
| 64 | How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? PolymarketEconomics | 4.82%45% 4.85%40% +7 more | — | -31.5 pts | $8.2K | $8.1K | — | $5.2K | 21d |
| 65 |  Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by...? PolymarketPolitics | September 3011% September 158.5% | — | +1.5 pts | $5.6K | $495 | — | $726 | 22d |
| 66 | USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes) PolymarketEconomics | 2.2 to 2.5M62% <2.2M20% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $5.6K | $1.7K | — | $11.6K | 22d |
| 67 | USD x Iranian rials End of December? PolymarketEconomics | 3.0 - 3.5M35% 2.0 - 2.5M30% +4 more | — | +17.5 pts | $5.4K | $1.6K | — | $17.0K | 114d |
| 68 | Core PCE MoM - August 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.2%36% 0.3%36% +5 more | — | +1.0 pts | $5.0K | $618 | — | $1.7K | 21d |
| 69 | How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September? PolymarketEconomics | 4.58%78% 4.61%67% +7 more | — | — | $4.3K | $707 | — | $6.3K | 21d |
| 70 | How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September? PolymarketEconomics | Below 5.24%85% Below 5.21%69% +7 more | — | — | $2.1K | $928 | — | $6.1K | 21d |
| 71 |  ISM Services PMI - September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 54.0 to 54.928% 55.0 to 55.923% +8 more | — | +3.5 pts | $2.1K | $425 | — | $12.6K | 26d |
| 72 | Jerome Powell Announced Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | Yes11% No10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 114d |
| 73 | Fed Rate Cut in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | No11% Yes10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 114d |
| 74 | Fed Rate Hike in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Yes72% No71% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 114d |
| 75 | Fed Decision in October Polymarket USEconomics | No Change70% 25 bps Increase30% +3 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 50d |
| 76 | Fed Decision in September Polymarket USEconomics | 25 bps Increase51% No Change47% +2 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8d |
| 77 | US GDP Growth in Q3 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Above 0.0%97% Above 0.5%90% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51d |
| 78 | Lisa Cook Officially Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | Yes50% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 114d |
| 79 | CPI YoY in August Polymarket USEconomics | Above 2.9%99% Above 3.0%99% +10 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3d |