Tech & Science Prediction Markets
AI, big tech, space and scientific milestones. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 313.0% September 300.7% | — | — | $66.87M | $54.3K | — | $1.09M | 112d |
| 2 | More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? KalshiTech & Science | Yes95% No4.6% | — | — | $31.47M | $628 | $658 | — | 171d |
| 3 | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? KalshiTech & Science | Before October1.0% No99% | — | — | $29.79M | $2.6K | $60.7K | — | 2y |
| 4 | Best AI at the end of 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Claude62% ChatGPT23% +6 more | — | +0.5 pts | $10.73M | $8.9K | $65.5K | — | 111d |
| 5 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA73% Apple16% +6 more | — | -6.0 pts | $7.11M | $134.6K | — | $1.43M | 111d |
| 6 | When will Apple release the iPhone 18? KalshiTech & Science | Before October1.0% No99% | — | — | $4.06M | $7.1K | $377.2K | — | 202d |
| 7 |  Which company has the best AI model end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic88% OpenAI8.8% +19 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.89M | $93.5K | — | $1.59M | 20d |
| 8 | In Dec 31, 20262.1% No98% | — | -1.1 pts | $1.89M | $7 | $317 | — | 112d | |
| 9 | Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA95% Apple5.2% +7 more | — | -3.1 pts | $1.57M | $59.3K | — | $955.1K | 20d |
| 10 | #1 searched person on Google in 2026 KalshiTech & Science | Erling Haaland18% Bad Bunny10% +14 more | — | -6.0 pts | $1.35M | $366 | $3.7K | — | 111d |
| 11 |  Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3169% October 1522% +2 more | — | +10.0 pts | $1.27M | $8.1K | — | $19.0K | 51d |
| 12 | Which company has best AI model end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic63% OpenAI22% +13 more | — | +1.5 pts | $1.20M | $9.9K | — | $916.8K | 112d |
| 13 | Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Anthropic67% OpenAI26% +7 more | — | — | $1.06M | $9 | $935 | — | 111d |
| 14 | Measles cases in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 300099% No1.0% | — | — | $1.01M | $1.7K | $2.0K | — | 112d |
| 15 |  Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31100% October 3199% +3 more | — | +0.4 pts | $988.6K | $51.0K | — | $59.9K | 112d |
| 16 |  SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3145% October 3116% | — | +12.0 pts | $983.2K | $1.9K | — | $13.3K | 112d |
| 17 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20263.0% No97% | — | -1.0 pts | $881.9K | $6.9K | $18.1K | — | 202d |
| 18 | When will Anthropic release Mythos? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $796.7K | $84 | $697 | — | 112d |
| 19 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? KalshiTech & Science | Grants license9.1% No91% | — | -0.7 pts | $785.5K | $248 | $2.7K | — | 112d |
| 20 | How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 12098% No2.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $635.8K | $701 | $3.0K | — | 112d |
| 21 | When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20265.0% No95% | — | — | $599.8K | $704 | $7.1K | — | 1y |
| 22 | When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $589.9K | $280 | $3.8K | — | 263d |
| 23 | NASA lands on the moon? KalshiTech & Science | Before 20271.1% No99% | — | +0.5 pts | $538.0K | $6 | $256 | — | 3y |
| 24 |  SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 PolymarketTech & Science | October 3197% Super Heavy booster explodes?83% +7 more | — | +0.7 pts | $490.3K | $9.1K | — | $47.0K | 293d |
| 25 | When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro? KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 21, 202699% No1.0% | — | — | $489.0K | $7.6K | $7.7K | — | 263d |
| 26 | Gemini 4.0 released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | November 3088% October 3169% +2 more | — | +1.0 pts | $457.1K | $2.0K | — | $38.6K | 81d |
| 27 | Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? KalshiTech & Science | Any psychedelic substance for medical use29% No71% | — | +2.0 pts | $380.6K | $59 | $202 | — | 112d |
| 28 | Tesla Optimus released this year? KalshiTech & Science | Before 20279.0% No91% | — | +1.0 pts | $372.7K | $30 | $335 | — | 111d |
| 29 | Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? KalshiTech & Science | OpenAI4.0% No96% | — | -5.0 pts | $358.6K | $1.3K | $3.2K | — | 13y |
| 30 | Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? KalshiTech & Science | Meta6.0% No94% | — | -3.0 pts | $357.8K | $307 | $1.7K | — | 112d |
| 31 | Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | United States18% No82% | — | +4.0 pts | $356.4K | $12 | $39 | — | 112d |
| 32 |  OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1480+73% 1490+42% +3 more | — | +14.5 pts | $311.8K | $7.1K | — | $10.8K | — |
| 33 |  Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba73% Moonshot20% +9 more | — | +6.0 pts | $302.2K | $21.9K | — | $76.5K | 20d |
| 34 | Where will Waymo operate in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Washington, DC8.0% No92% | — | -32.0 pts | $262.8K | $335 | $2.1K | — | 111d |
| 35 | Which company has the best AI model end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic70% OpenAI19% +19 more | — | -6.0 pts | $236.0K | $3.7K | — | $367.6K | 51d |
| 36 |  Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes100% No0.1% | — | — | $235.4K | $20.8K | — | $22.7K | 112d |
| 37 |  OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? PolymarketTech & Science | No73% Yes28% | — | +4.0 pts | $226.2K | $7.7K | — | $16.6K | 111d |
| 38 |  Which company has the best AI Agent end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic92% OpenAI7.5% +16 more | — | -3.0 pts | $215.9K | $6.1K | — | $62.9K | 20d |
| 39 |  Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | 156035% 158026% +1 more | — | -7.0 pts | $212.5K | $3.3K | — | $6.4K | 112d |
| 40 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? PolymarketTech & Science | 152099% 15404.5% +2 more | — | +4.8 pts | $193.9K | $2.7K | — | $7.3K | 20d |
| 41 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | ↑ 152096% ↑ 153040% +5 more | — | +1.0 pts | $184.9K | $2.1K | — | $8.2K | 112d |
| 42 | 3rd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet92% Microsoft5.1% +7 more | — | +1.0 pts | $170.0K | $8.9K | — | $214.6K | 20d |
| 43 |  #1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Nancy Guthrie27% Bad Bunny16% +55 more | — | — | $161.1K | $9.9K | — | $1.61M | 112d |
| 44 | Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1480+94% 1495+78% +3 more | — | +0.1 pts | $148.8K | $2.5K | — | $6.8K | — |
| 45 | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes27% No73% | — | — | $137.3K | M$7.3K | — | $209 | 1y |
| 46 |  AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202786% December 31, 202665% +1 more | — | +14.0 pts | $124.0K | $68.3K | — | $16.2K | 1y |
| 47 | #1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Euphoria37% Stranger Things34% +43 more | — | +10.8 pts | $106.9K | $4.3K | — | $1.42M | 112d |
| 48 |  How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | <1263% 12-1528% +5 more | — | +6.0 pts | $105.5K | $3.5K | — | $19.3K | 112d |
| 49 | Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Moonshot56% Alibaba22% +9 more | — | -1.0 pts | $100.4K | $4.6K | — | $16.8K | 20d |
| 50 | 2nd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Apple93% Alphabet5.5% +7 more | — | +0.5 pts | $96.3K | $7.0K | — | $137.4K | 20d |
| 51 |  SSI public model released by…? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3114% September 3011% | — | -11.0 pts | $96.3K | $2.5K | — | $5.5K | 51d |
| 52 |  Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 45%+90% 50%+50% +3 more | — | +1.1 pts | $88.2K | $2.6K | — | $4.1K | 112d |
| 53 | Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? PolymarketTech & Science | No release by September 3090% September 303.9% +20 more | — | +3.5 pts | $83.6K | $2.1K | — | $68.8K | 20d |
| 54 | #1 Searched Actor on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Inde Navarrette46% Tom Holland22% +30 more | — | -7.0 pts | $78.8K | $5.0K | — | $266.8K | 112d |
| 55 |  How much will the iPhone 18 Pro cost? PolymarketTech & Science | $1150+100% $1100+99% +3 more | — | +0.1 pts | $77.7K | $5.0K | — | $28.6K | 202d |
| 56 |  Discord IPO Closing Market Cap PolymarketTech & Science | No IPO by December 31, 202746% 11–14B20% +6 more | — | -2.9 pts | $70.0K | $3.0K | — | $34.6K | 1y |
| 57 | Third-best AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Google64% Meta22% +19 more | — | -1.0 pts | $69.9K | $3.2K | — | $30.5K | 20d |
| 58 | SpaceX Starship 14th launch? KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 18, 20261.0% No99% | — | -7.0 pts | $69.5K | $1.4K | $8.5K | — | 35d |
| 59 |  Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Google51% Anthropic18% +18 more | — | -3.0 pts | $52.5K | $5.0K | — | $16.6K | 20d |
| 60 | OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202790% December 31, 202671% +1 more | — | +39.5 pts | $51.2K | $49.7K | — | $8.1K | 1y |
| 61 | Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? PolymarketTech & Science | Hodge Conjecture42% Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer21% +4 more | — | +15.5 pts | $51.0K | $50.3K | — | $56.9K | 1y |
| 62 |  Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 55%+39% 60%+21% +2 more | — | +8.5 pts | $49.2K | $3.5K | — | $2.8K | 112d |
| 63 |  Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI89% SpaceXAI4.0% +11 more | — | +0.5 pts | $41.6K | $2.2K | — | $31.5K | 20d |
| 64 | Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Google42% Z.ai36% +18 more | — | -3.0 pts | $40.3K | $1.7K | — | $13.9K | 51d |
| 65 | Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | SpaceXAI30% Alibaba26% +14 more | — | -10.7 pts | $40.3K | $2.7K | — | $10.3K | 20d |
| 66 | Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 4k96% No4.0% | — | — | $37.6K | $1.1K | $1.4K | — | 112d |
| 67 | Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Z.ai66% Moonshot12% +9 more | — | -4.5 pts | $34.5K | $2.5K | — | $11.6K | 20d |
| 68 |  US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No90% Yes11% | — | +4.0 pts | $34.0K | $3.2K | — | $1.8K | 112d |
| 69 |  Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202769% December 31, 202628% +1 more | — | +20.0 pts | $22.8K | $22.8K | — | $8.0K | 1y |
| 70 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 202618% No82% | — | -7.0 pts | $21.3K | $908 | $4.1K | — | 112d |
| 71 |  Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI90% Google7.5% +12 more | — | +17.5 pts | $17.4K | $16.8K | — | $25.1K | 20d |
| 72 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? KalshiTech & Science | Before Jan 1, 202783% No17% | — | +48.0 pts | $16.3K | $10.9K | $12.7K | — | 1y |
| 73 | How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 242% 134% +4 more | — | +28.0 pts | $16.1K | $16.0K | — | $15.4K | 112d |
| 74 |  Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $900B-$1.00T46% $800-$900B38% +5 more | — | +5.0 pts | $15.8K | $2.6K | — | $4.7K | 20d |
| 75 |  AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No89% Yes12% | — | -13.5 pts | $12.7K | $2.3K | — | $2.6K | 112d |
| 76 |  Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3173% September 3024% | — | -4.0 pts | $10.9K | $1.8K | — | $3.9K | 51d |
| 77 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202845% December 31, 202719% +1 more | — | -8.5 pts | $7.9K | $7.9K | — | $14.4K | 2y |
| 78 |  #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11? PolymarketTech & Science | ChatGPT70% ESPN Fantasy Sports & More15% +5 more | — | +6.5 pts | $7.9K | $2.3K | — | $5.2K | 1d |
| 79 |  Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | September 1878% September 1466% +1 more | — | -5.5 pts | $7.2K | $5.6K | — | $4.3K | 38d |
| 80 |  Next DeepSeek Pro released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | November 3051% October 3121% +1 more | — | -9.0 pts | $6.9K | $1.8K | — | $751 | 81d |
| 81 |  Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | MiniMax79% Tencent22% +13 more | — | +55.5 pts | $6.4K | $6.4K | — | $8.0K | 20d |
| 82 | Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...? PolymarketTech & Science | September 30, 202613% December 31, 202611% | — | -37.0 pts | $5.5K | $5.5K | — | $1.8K | 1y |
| 83 |  Anthropic resets Claude usage limit by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3170% September 3051% +1 more | — | +7.5 pts | $5.3K | $5.2K | — | $4.9K | 51d |
| 84 | Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes45% No55% | — | — | $4.7K | M$959 | — | $10 | 4y |
| 85 |  Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI85% Google5.5% +12 more | — | +61.0 pts | $3.8K | $3.8K | — | $13.1K | 51d |
| 86 | Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes5.1% No95% | — | — | $3.4K | M$2.5K | — | $100 | 50d |
| 87 | Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026 PolymarketTech & Science | Erling Haaland68% Bad Bunny45% +14 more | — | +20.5 pts | $3.3K | $3.3K | — | $49.3K | 112d |
| 88 |  What will Oracle say during their next earnings call? PolymarketTech & Science | Data Center 5+ times100% Alloy100% +8 more | — | +6.5 pts | $3.2K | $2.5K | — | $1.4K | 37m |
| 89 |  Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | MiniMax69% Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH12% +13 more | — | +45.0 pts | $2.9K | $2.9K | — | $11.9K | 51d |
| 90 | What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? KalshiTech & Science | T-Mobile0.0% No100% | — | — | $2.8K | $1.7K | $1.7K | — | 201d |
| 91 |  OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI67% Anthropic34% | — | +14.5 pts | $2.3K | $2.3K | — | $2.4K | 1y |
| 92 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes95% No4.9% | — | — | $937 | M$2.7K | — | $10 | 20d |
| 93 | AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes9.0% No91% | — | — | $901 | M$28.0K | — | $10 | 112d |
| 94 | Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes95% No4.7% | — | — | $410 | M$1.6K | — | $10 | 8y |
| 95 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes30% No70% | — | — | $182 | M$1.6K | — | $60 | 112d |
| 96 | Will OpenAI discover a room temp superconductor in 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes50% No50% | — | — | $97 | M$1.3K | — | $10 | 112d |
| 97 | 6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips. ManifoldTech & Science | Yes90% No9.6% | — | — | $65 | M$750 | — | $10 | 112d |
| 98 | Will Anthropic announce progress on a cure for cancer before their IPO? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes11% No89% | — | — | $23 | M$792 | — | $10 | 111d |
| 99 | OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes46% No54% | — | — | $17 | M$1.0K | — | $10 | 3y |
| 100 | Will an AI Safety tweet get >1 million likes by the end of 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes56% No44% | — | — | $10 | M$1.4K | — | $10 | 112d |