Tech & Science Prediction Markets
AI, big tech, space and scientific milestones. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 314.1% October 310.6% | — | -0.1 pts | $75.26M | $439.7K | — | $911.4K | 66d |
| 2 | More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? KalshiTech & Science | Yes94% No5.9% | — | -0.1 pts | $31.50M | $87 | $92 | — | 125d |
| 3 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA62% Apple34% +6 more | — | +2.0 pts | $8.95M | $19.0K | — | $1.24M | 66d |
| 4 |  Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202830% December 31, 202717% +2 more | — | — | $6.36M | $27.5K | — | $571.5K | 2y |
| 5 |  Anthropic IPO by __? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202695% December 15, 202694% +5 more | — | +19.0 pts | $5.80M | $344.0K | — | $188.9K | 66d |
| 6 |  Which company has the best AI model end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Google86% Anthropic9.2% +19 more | — | -4.4 pts | $3.61M | $92.1K | — | $1.27M | 4d |
| 7 |  AI bubble burst by...? PolymarketTech & Science | June 30, 202723% December 31, 20269.7% | — | — | $3.13M | $5.0K | — | $57.2K | 66d |
| 8 | Which company has best AI model end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic53% Google36% +13 more | — | -1.0 pts | $3.04M | $50.4K | — | $1.37M | 66d |
| 9 |  Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202924% December 31, 202818% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $2.62M | $6.5K | — | $683.9K | 3y |
| 10 | Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap PolymarketTech & Science | $1.75–$2.0T29% $2.0–$2.25T21% +8 more | — | — | $2.48M | $137.3K | — | $152.8K | 1y |
| 11 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Nov 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | -1.0 pts | $2.16M | $49.6K | $313.9K | — | 156d |
| 12 |  Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202763% June 30, 202757% +3 more | — | +0.5 pts | $1.60M | $7.2K | — | $84.4K | 1y |
| 13 |  Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 3193% October 3128% +5 more | — | -0.4 pts | $1.05M | $61.5K | — | $28.7K | 66d |
| 14 |  OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202754% December 31, 202614% | — | -2.0 pts | $1.03M | $20.2K | — | $43.4K | 1y |
| 15 | Largest Company end of October 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA88% Apple12% +7 more | — | +11.6 pts | $865.3K | $35.1K | — | $396.5K | 5d |
| 16 | When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? KalshiTech & Science | Before Nov 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | -1.0 pts | $804.1K | $1.7K | $14.0K | — | 1y |
| 17 |  Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202834% December 31, 202714% +2 more | — | +10.0 pts | $784.2K | $34.5K | — | $178.2K | 2y |
| 18 |  Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202826% December 31, 202714% +2 more | — | — | $779.6K | $5.0K | — | $155.8K | 2y |
| 19 |  Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202835% December 31, 202721% +2 more | — | +4.0 pts | $767.9K | $3.6K | — | $158.9K | 2y |
| 20 |  Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202830% December 31, 202721% +2 more | — | +1.0 pts | $591.9K | $10.6K | — | $144.2K | 2y |
| 21 | When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Nov 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $521.0K | $47 | $376 | — | 217d |
| 22 |  AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202756% December 31, 202618% | — | -7.5 pts | $485.2K | $4.8K | — | $13.7K | 1y |
| 23 | Above 235,000 jobs98% No2.0% | — | — | $454.1K | — | — | — | 124d | |
| 24 |  OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202918% December 31, 202816% +1 more | — | -2.0 pts | $437.7K | $2.7K | — | $196.5K | 3y |
| 25 | Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? KalshiTech & Science | OpenAI4.0% No96% | — | -4.0 pts | $429.1K | $6.2K | $6.8K | — | 13y |
| 26 | Which company has the best AI model end of November? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic46% Google46% +19 more | — | +1.5 pts | $423.3K | $5.2K | — | $163.0K | 35d |
| 27 | How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 085% 114% +4 more | — | +2.0 pts | $412.9K | $6.4K | — | $97.4K | 66d |
| 28 |  GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 3187% December 1575% +3 more | — | +2.5 pts | $393.2K | $10.8K | — | $30.2K | 66d |
| 29 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? PolymarketTech & Science | No release by October 3171% October 2714% +5 more | — | +2.5 pts | $371.1K | $30.2K | — | $42.4K | 5d |
| 30 |  Best Chinese AI Company end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Xiaomi72% Moonshot23% +9 more | — | +7.3 pts | $346.6K | $17.0K | — | $55.5K | 4d |
| 31 |  CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202928% December 31, 202820% +1 more | — | +1.0 pts | $334.0K | $6.7K | — | $64.8K | 3y |
| 32 |  When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? PolymarketTech & Science | No release by November 197% October 26–November 11.8% | — | -0.9 pts | $329.9K | $12.0K | — | $14.4K | 6d |
| 33 | Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1470+34% 1495+26% +4 more | — | -14.0 pts | $321.6K | $3.0K | — | $19.1K | 66d |
| 34 | Where will Waymo operate in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Washington, DC3.0% No97% | — | -1.0 pts | $314.9K | $223 | $2.4K | — | 65d |
| 35 |  #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Obsession45% The Odyssey34% +20 more | — | +0.5 pts | $250.2K | $3.5K | — | $265.0K | 156d |
| 36 | What will Anthropic's public ticker be? PolymarketTech & Science | $ANT99% $AAI0.3% +7 more | — | +46.1 pts | $220.7K | $59.2K | — | $213.7K | 1y |
| 37 |  How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | 12-1581% 16-199.2% +5 more | — | -0.4 pts | $213.1K | $2.5K | — | $56.5K | 66d |
| 38 |  Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? PolymarketCrypto | Yes79% No22% | — | +15.5 pts | $208.9K | $2.3K | — | $8.1K | 66d |
| 39 | Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? KalshiTech & Science | United States57% No43% | — | +0.1 pts | $186.9K | $351 | $1.5K | — | 4y |
| 40 |  Discord IPO Closing Market Cap PolymarketTech & Science | No IPO by December 31, 202753% 11–14B6.7% +6 more | — | -0.4 pts | $174.9K | $3.1K | — | $25.3K | 1y |
| 41 | How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 023% No77% | — | -8.0 pts | $172.7K | $43 | $309 | — | 66d |
| 42 |  Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? PolymarketTech & Science | DeepSeek26% Moonshot AI17% +2 more | — | -7.0 pts | $164.5K | $3.4K | — | $107.6K | 247d |
| 43 |  Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Saudi Arabia33% Russia7.5% +8 more | — | +8.0 pts | $157.8K | $4.0K | — | $203.2K | 66d |
| 44 |  Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes99% No1.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $142.3K | $5.2K | — | $18.1K | 66d |
| 45 | Next Gemini Pro Model released on...? PolymarketTech & Science | No release by October 3198% October 281.5% +5 more | — | +0.8 pts | $133.6K | $6.2K | — | $23.9K | 5d |
| 46 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | November 3083% October 3152% +5 more | — | -2.4 pts | $111.4K | $5.1K | — | $6.8K | 35d |
| 47 | 2nd Largest Company end of October 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Apple84% NVIDIA15% +7 more | — | +9.0 pts | $107.1K | $9.5K | — | $152.1K | 5d |
| 48 |  Situational Awareness raises new capital by...? PolymarketTech & Science | No96% Yes3.5% | — | -6.5 pts | $92.5K | $4.3K | — | $8.8K | 5d |
| 49 | Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba39% Moonshot31% +9 more | — | +5.5 pts | $84.1K | $7.0K | — | $5.5K | 4d |
| 50 | GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 55%+94% 60%+88% +2 more | — | +1.5 pts | $71.9K | $20.2K | — | $12.2K | 247d |
| 51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1500+93% 1510+83% +3 more | — | -0.4 pts | $68.1K | $3.9K | — | $22.7K | 247d |
| 52 | Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Goldman Sachs94% JPMorgan Chase2.0% +4 more | — | +86.0 pts | $61.0K | $4.7K | $18.9K | — | 1y |
| 53 | Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba53% Moonshot25% +9 more | — | -0.1 pts | $56.7K | $2.9K | — | $8.2K | 4d |
| 54 |  SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? PolymarketTech & Science | November 30, 202674% Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?59% +5 more | — | — | $47.5K | $4.0K | — | $5.3K | 247d |
| 55 |  Will Claude go down on __ days in October? PolymarketTech & Science | 5-779% 8-1020% +3 more | — | +1.5 pts | $47.0K | $3.0K | — | $12.9K | 5d |
| 56 | GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1430+80% 1440+56% +3 more | — | — | $38.8K | $13.5K | — | $2.5K | 247d |
| 57 |  Kimi K4 released by…? PolymarketTech & Science | March 31, 202727% December 31, 20268.0% +1 more | — | +0.5 pts | $37.3K | $2.6K | — | $4.0K | 66d |
| 58 | Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 2920% October 3013% +35 more | — | +1.5 pts | $31.0K | $6.1K | — | $21.9K | 35d |
| 59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 50%+99% 55%+86% +2 more | — | +4.2 pts | $26.5K | $2.7K | — | $6.4K | 247d |
| 60 | Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1470+79% 1480+51% +3 more | — | -15.5 pts | $25.6K | $6.7K | — | $9.6K | 247d |
| 61 | When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released? PolymarketTech & Science | October 26–November 155% November 30–December 611% +8 more | — | +3.0 pts | $23.1K | $4.5K | — | $13.4K | 62d |
| 62 |  Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No59% Yes42% | — | -12.0 pts | $21.9K | $3.3K | — | $877 | 66d |
| 63 | Kimi K3.1 Pro: HLE-Diamond Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 20%+95% 25%+77% +2 more | — | +12.5 pts | $21.3K | $5.1K | — | $1.8K | 247d |
| 64 |  Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by...? PolymarketTech & Science | June 3054% December 3112% | — | +8.5 pts | $20.6K | $5.5K | — | $6.5K | 247d |
| 65 | When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? PolymarketTech & Science | November 16–November 2225% October 26–November 119% +14 more | — | +10.5 pts | $19.2K | $6.4K | — | $15.7K | 97d |
| 66 | Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1440+72% 1450+56% +2 more | — | -7.5 pts | $18.8K | $5.2K | — | $3.2K | 247d |
| 67 | Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 50%+99% 55%+81% +2 more | — | +8.3 pts | $18.1K | $4.3K | — | $6.1K | 247d |
| 68 | Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | Top 2054% Top 1017% +1 more | — | -28.5 pts | $16.5K | $3.6K | — | $2.9K | 247d |
| 69 | US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3189% October 3156% | — | +12.6 pts | $14.8K | $3.5K | — | $15.5K | 66d |
| 70 | How much will the Tesla Roadster cost? KalshiTech & Science | At least $150,00088% No12% | — | — | $9.8K | $1.7K | $2.2K | — | 1y |
| 71 |  #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26? PolymarketTech & Science | Google53% OpenAI45% +10 more | — | — | $6.7K | $7.7K | — | $5.3K | 8d |
| 72 |  #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26? PolymarketTech & Science | DeepSeek96% Qwen1.9% +10 more | — | — | $6.5K | $6.5K | — | $19.6K | 8d |
| 73 |  #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI50% Google43% +10 more | — | — | $5.1K | $5.1K | — | $4.5K | 8d |
| 74 |  How many SpaceX launches in October 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | <1498% 1410% +3 more | — | +8.5 pts | $4.3K | $2.5K | — | $8.8K | 5d |
| 75 | GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes15% No85% | — | — | $1.7K | M$18.8K | — | $15 | 5d |
| 76 | AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes74% No26% | — | — | $629 | M$880 | — | $10 | 1y |
| 77 | Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes64% No36% | — | — | $463 | M$484 | — | $100 | 4y |
| 78 | Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes6.9% No93% | — | — | $430 | M$457 | — | $10 | 65d |
| 79 | Will Tesla have a 0-60mph < 1 sec car before 2028? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes50% No50% | — | — | $263 | M$500 | — | $10 | 1y |
| 80 | Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes2.9% No97% | — | — | $84 | M$1.0K | — | $10 | 66d |
| 81 | Will an AI agent cause a plane crash in 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes3.0% No97% | — | — | $56 | M$2.5K | — | $10 | 64d |
| 82 | Yes20% No80% | — | — | $42 | M$1.1K | — | $11 | 66d | |
| 83 | GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes58% No42% | — | — | $31 | M$571 | — | $10 | 35d |
| 84 | Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes98% No2.3% | — | — | $25 | M$813 | — | $2 | 65d |
| 85 | Anthropic IPOs in 2026 AND has a closing market cap above 1.8trillion? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes58% No42% | — | — | $19 | M$632 | — | $10 | 66d |
| 86 | OpenAI IPO Officially Confirmed? Polymarket USTech & Science | June 30, 202749% December 31, 20264.0% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 247d |
| 87 | Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed? Polymarket USTech & Science | June 30, 202797% December 31, 202693% +2 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 247d |
| 88 | Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? Polymarket USTech & Science | Anthropic53% Google33% +5 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 89 | Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? Polymarket USTech & Science | Meta12% xAI10% +8 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 90 | Which Company Has #1 AI Coding Model end of 2026? Polymarket USTech & Science | Anthropic69% Google13% +9 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 91 | Elon Musk Announced Out As Tesla CEO? Polymarket USTech & Science | Yes7.0% No6.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 92 | Sam Altman Announced Out As OpenAI CEO? Polymarket USTech & Science | Yes9.0% No8.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 93 | Chinese AI Model Ranked #1? Polymarket USTech & Science | Yes13% No12% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 94 | Grok 5 Released? Polymarket USTech & Science | Yes39% No38% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 95 | US Measles Cases in 2026? Polymarket USTech & Science | Above 500098% Above 750023% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 96 | Pandemic? Polymarket USTech & Science | By December 31, 202717% By December 31, 20266.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1y |
| 97 | Dario Amodei Announced Out as Anthropic CEO? Polymarket USTech & Science | No5.0% Yes4.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66d |
| 98 | Texas Tech Regular Season Win Total Polymarket USSports | 7.5+ Wins95% 8.5+ Wins79% +2 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 33d |
| 99 | Georgia Tech Regular Season Win Total Polymarket USSports | 4.5+ Wins12% 5.5+ Wins7.0% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 33d |
| 100 | Virginia Tech Regular Season Win Total Polymarket USSports | 6.5+ Wins90% 7.5+ Wins69% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 33d |