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Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold
World
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Current odds
Yes
4.6%
No
95%
Yes probability
24H
1W
1M
All
1%
7%
13%
Sep 14
Sep 14
Sep 15
Trade on Manifold
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